The New York Yankees have won six of their last seven games and are healthy 64% favorites to claim another victory against the Minnesota Twins tonight.
Max Fried gives them a decisive pitching edge over Bailey Ober — especially against a lineup that simply isn't hitting southpaws — which is a big reason my Yankees vs. Twins prediction backs the visitors to win.
Read all about it in my MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 15.
Who will win Yankees vs Twins today: Yankees
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I’m on the New York Yankees all the way up to 66%.
Max Fried has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since Aug. 1, posting a 1.53 ERA and .238 wOBA while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.
He allowed just two barrels and a 24.6% hard-hit rate over 29 1/3 innings of work in that span. Incredible numbers.
Fried should have his way with the Minnesota Twins, who sit 29th in barrel rate and xwOBA against southpaws over the last month.
The Yankees won’t have to score much to win.
COVERS INTEL: Max Fried ranks in the 97th percentile in xERA, and will make life miserable on a Twins team with a .267 xwOBA against lefties over their last 30 games.
Yankees vs Twins Over/Under pick: Under 7.5
I’m playing the Under to 51%.
Fried missed some time with injury, but he has allowed two runs or more just once over eight starts since July 22.
His xERA (2.05) is in near lockstep with his actual ERA (1.93), which is a good sign that what he’s doing is sustainable.
The Twins are having a miserable time producing offense against lefties, and this is not a good spot for that to change.
Bailey Ober has suppressed power much better of late (0.45 HR/9 the L30). Colder temperatures could help zap some of the carry for New York’s bats.
Yankees vs Twins home run prediction: Luis Garcia Jr. (17%)
Fastballs and changeups account for nearly 75% of Ober’s pitches to lefties this season.
That’s good news for Luis Garcia Jr., who hits that combination for plenty of power. He owns a .262 ISO and 12.5% barrel rate vs. those two pitches.
What I also like is a low strikeout rate (16.7%) and walk rate (3.6%). He is putting a ton of balls in play — which you need to leave the park — so the power stems from high volume.
This isn’t a hitter who leaves the bat on his shoulders while turning plate appearances into a walk parade.
- ML/RL bets: 113-96, -5.15 units
- Over/Under bets: 108-95-6, -0.40 units
Yankees vs Twins weather
Temperatures are expected to hover around the mid-60s with winds blowing left to right. Good pitching conditions.
Yankees vs Twins odds
- Moneyline: Yankees 63% | Twins 38%
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 (49%) | Twins +1.5 (52%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (54%) | Under 7.5 (47%)
Yankees vs Twins trend
New York has hit the moneyline in 31 of its last 50 away games (+9.40 units, 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Twins.
How to watch Yankees vs Twins and game info
| Location | Target Field, Minneapolis, Minn. |
| Date | Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, Twins.TV |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (4-4, 2.73 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher | Bailey Ober (7-5, 4.28 ERA) |
Yankees vs Twins latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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