The Philadelphia Phillies are strong home favorites against the New York Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball as they look to avoid a sweep, but I expect a close game.
Cristopher Sanchez has been one of baseball’s best starters this season, but his July form has not matched that level. Will Warren gives Philadelphia a scoring path, too, which is why I’m also playing the Over.
Here are my Yankees vs Phillies predictions and MLB picks for July 26.
Who will win Yankees vs Phillies today: Yankees +1.5 (-137)
I'm zagging from my season-long general outlook of fading New York Yankees arm Will Warren... at least a tad. It may seem like an odd time to do it with Philadelphia Phillies arm Christopher Sanchez on the mound, but we have to look at what's happening presently.
Sanchez is still excellent. However, July has been rough: a 7.47 ERA + 1.98 WHIP across 16 innings. He's already matched last year's 31 barrels allowed, and his barrel rate has jumped from 5.7% to 8.4%.
You don't need me to tell you that New York is built to succeed against that. Play this to -150.
COVERS INTEL: Cristopher Sanchez's sinker is the Yankees' clearest attack point: it has allowed a .371 xwOBA and 56% hard-hit rate despite his excellent overall production.
Yankees vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-121)
I like the Over, and I'd play it to -135. It's the only direction you can go if you feel the Yankees cover because Warren won't be spotless.
Sanchez’s recent issue has been contact volume, and the Yankees are a good option to expose that. Their 9.7% barrel rate and 135 home runs give them a direct path if his July command or location issues continue.
Warren brings the Philly side into play. His 4.50 xERA and .415 xSLG are a problem against a lineup with a 9% barrel rate and .411 xSLG.;
- ML/RL bets: 40-35, +7.47 units
- Over/Under bets: 43-34, +11.01 units
Yankees vs Phillies weather
Yankees vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Yankees +165 | Phillies -178
- Run line: Yankees +1.5 | Phillies -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Yankees vs Phillies trend
How to watch Yankees vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Sunday, July 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC, Peacock |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (7-4, 4.00 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Cristopher Sanchez (12-4, 2.71 ERA) |
Yankees vs Phillies latest injuries
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