Baseball is already underway at Progressive Field as the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians are playing Game 1 of a doubleheader following Friday's rainout.
Game 2 will follow this evening, and it's not the most enticing pitching matchup as Cody Poteet squares off against Triston McKenzie.
With markets limited, read on for my Yankees vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks for the second half of Saturday, April 13th's doubleheader.
Yankees vs Guardians Game 2 prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
Handicapping doubleheaders is always a dicey and frustrating proposition. It's dicey because managers won't tend to trot out identical lineups from one game to the next, and it's frustrating because this severely limits the available markets ahead of the nightcap.
Such is the case here, as player props have not been listed for Game 2 between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians. But from my vantage point, the Over on 8.5 total runs is offering the best value at even money.
This is tied almost entirely to the pitching matchup, with Cody Poteet starting for the Yankees opposite Guardians right-hander Triston McKenzie. Poteet hasn't appeared in a major-league game since 2022, when he was a member of the Miami Marlins. He owns a 4.45 ERA in 58 2/3 career innings between 2021-22.
In that limited sample, Poteet has been hit hard (11 home runs) and exhibited questionable command (27 walks). And while he's done fine at Triple-A Scranton this season (2.16), he's only thrown 8 1/3 innings over two outings.
Combine exposure to greater competition in the bigs with him not being stretched out to a typical starter's workload, and this has all the makings of a short outing, whether he's on point or not. After pitching only two minor-league innings in all of 2023, Poteet could be in for a rude awakening.
On the opposite side, McKenzie has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career (notably in 2022) but injuries derailed 2023 and he hasn't looked particularly sharp when able to take the mound. He's limited opponents to four earned runs in nine innings this season, but he's issued a whopping six walks compared to only four strikeouts.
If McKenzie struggles to find the strike zone against Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and the rest of the Yankees lineup, this game will get out of hand in a hurry.
Yankees vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
A run in the 1st inning - Yes
Guardians moneyline
Call this the Poteet fade. The Guardians don't have the most imposing lineup from top-to-bottom, but they set up well to do damage with Andres Gimenez and Jose Ramirez typically among the first three batters to step in the box. Even before Poteet toes the rubber, however, the Yankees can take advantage against a wild McKenzie.
And if both starters scuffle, I still prefer McKenzie to Poteet. Once the game turns to the bullpen, Cleveland holds the definitive edge. Guardians relievers have combined for a 1.29 ERA (2.49 FIP) in 48 2/3 innings this season. That's enough of an edge to take the home squad on the moneyline.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Guardians Game 2 odds
Yankees vs Guardians live odds
Yankees vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+120) | Cleveland +1.5 (-154)
- Moneyline: New York -138 | Cleveland +110
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-118) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Yankees vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- Lines are limited while waiting for Game 1 to finish, but the Yankees opened as the consensus favorite around -138 with the Guardians at +110.
- The Guardians have been a strong home team, winning 35 of their last 62 games at Progressive Field, dating back to last season.
- The total opened at 8.5 with the Over set at -118 and the Under at -110.
- That has moved significantly to even money on the Over, likely with the expectation that fatigue will have set in by the time the second game starts.
Yankees vs Guardians trend
The Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Guardians
Yankees vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 4-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, Bally Sports Great Lakes |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Cody Poteet (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Triston McKenzie (1-1, 4.00 ERA) |
Yankees vs Guardians latest injuries
Yankees vs Guardians weather
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