Oh baby, it's opening night in the NHL, and I'm dropping my Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prediction to start building your bankroll for the rest of the season.
The Montreal Canadiens are on the road to clash with the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena (7 p.m. ET). The blue and white are slight 49% underdogs at Novig, and we're looking to take advantage.
Tap into my NHL picks for Tuesday, Sept. 29, and let's start the season off hot.
TOP PICK
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs prediction: Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs have been absolutely dominating the Montreal Canadiens in this spot, owning a 16-2-3 record against them at Scotiabank Arena since 2016 while currently riding a 10-game winning streak in home openers.
The moves Toronto made in the offseason—adding Darren Raddysh, Sergei Bobrovsky, Kirill Marchenko, and Jack Roslovic, while drafting Gavin McKenna - were fine pieces of business and elevated an already strong roster.
The Leafs’ top six is elite, and while the Canadiens are a talented team entering the season with high expectations of their own, the trends say this is a difficult spot for Montreal. After a shockingly disappointing campaign, Toronto will be motivated to set the tone immediately in front of its home crowd.
With last year likely an outlier for Toronto, the 49% price at Novig is a welcome sight. I'd play the Leafs to 53%.
COVERS INTEL: Montreal ranked 28th in high-danger shots against last season, suggesting the Leafs might find some premium goal-scoring opportunities tonight. Let's see Jakub Dobes get peppered.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs combo
Auston Matthews looked much better in the preseason, and we're all expecting a bounce-back campaign from him after he failed to reach the 30-goal mark for the first time in his 10-year career.
Elsewhere, McKenna is projected to play on the second line with John Tavares and Marchenko, and he'll get ample power-play time. Expect him to receive plenty of opportunities to etch his name on the scoresheet tonight.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs combo
- Toronto Maple Leafs moneyline
- Auston Matthews 4+ shots
- Gavin McKenna 1+ point
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs goal scorer: Auston Matthews
You better believe Matthews will be the most motivated Leaf tonight after failing to score 30 for the first time in his career last season. Matthews spent all offseason hearing about how he's not the same player without his buddy, Mitch Marner.
Well, tonight is a good night to put those whispers to bed. And against a team that allowed the fifth-most high-danger shots in the league last season, expect Matthews to be buzzing.
- Top picks: 0-0, +0.0 units
- Combos: 0-0, +0.0 units
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Canadiens 51% | Maple Leafs 49%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (50%) | Under 6.5 (52%)
- Spread: Canadiens -1.5 (30%) | Maple Leafs +1.5 (72%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs trend
The Over is 4-1 in the Maple Leafs' last five home games. Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Canadiens vs Maple Leafs
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario |
| Date | Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet |
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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