The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies get the MLB playoffs started this afternoon in Atlanta, and I'm teeing up Game 1 of their wild-card series in my Phillies vs. Braves prop picks.
The Braves (64%) are heavily favored to take the opener against their NL East rival, which is reflected in my MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 29.
For more on this game, consult Neil Parker's complete Phillies vs. Braves predictions.
Best Phillies vs Braves props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs |
54% |
 Alec Bohm Over 0.5 hits |
66% |
| Trea Turner Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs |
61% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs
Ronald Acuna Jr. really put it together for the Atlanta Braves down the stretch. He led the team with a .370 OBP, .406 wOBA, and .562 SLG over the final 25 regular-season games.
Acuna enjoyed plenty of success against lefties, trailing only Matt Olson in wOBA during that span. That’s noteworthy, as he could get a couple of at-bats against Jesus Luzardo tonight.
Acuna has also posted a career .310 average over 187 at-bats against the Philadelphia Phillies' relievers. Luzardo will only pitch a few innings, which means Acuna can look forward to multiple plate appearances against that group.
Prop pick #2: Alec Bohm Over 0.5 hits
Alec Bohm is one of the few with a strong track record of hitting against Chris Sale. He's picked up a knock in seven of 23 at-bats against him, good for a .304 batting average.
Bohm’s numbers against the fastball-slider combination — which Sale relies on heavily when facing right-handed hitters — suggest that's no coincidence. He owns a team-best .321 average versus fastballs and sliders from southpaws this season.
His walk rate sits at just 4.6%, which is an added bonus. He’s not going to take every fringe pitch and grind out free passes. He’s going to swing the bat and aggressively seek contact.
Prop pick #3: Trea Turner Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs
Trea Turner didn't fare well against high-end southpaws during the regular season.
He faced nine left-handed starters who ranked in the 70th percentile or better in xwOBA versus right-handed hitters. Turner cleared 1.5 HRR in just one of those nine games, averaging an underwhelming 0.7 HRR along the way.
Turner also hit .181 against fastballs and sliders from lefties this year. With Sale likely to pitch deep into this game and a fresh stable of relievers behind him, there's no easy path to production for Turner.
- Prop picks: 5-4, +0.55 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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