Yankees vs Astros Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game

Phil Naessens - Contributor at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst 19+ years betting experience
Updated: Apr 26, 2026 , 08:54 AM ET • 4 min read

The Yankees have broken out the lumber during their series with the Astros, and our expert MLB predictions expect the Bronx Bomber bats to boom again this afternoon.

MLB

Match starts: 3 hrs
NYY
0 %
HOU
0 %
EXPERT PICK - RUN LINE
NY Yankees -1.5 (+120) NY Yankees -1.5 (+120)
Read Analysis
Ben Rice of the New York Yankees MLB
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Ben Rice of the New York Yankees MLB

The New York Yankees look for a series sweep when they visit Daikin Park and the Houston Astros.

The New York bats are booming, and my Yankees vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks expect the Yankees to pull off a convincing victory. 

Who will win Yankees vs Astros today: Yankees -1.5 (+120)

Luis Gil doesn't need to be lights out today. He just needs to hold off the Houston Astros long enough for his New York Yankees lineup to do what it's been doing all season.

Ben Rice is barreling at 21.6%, and Aaron Judge at 24.6%, the Yankees are second in the sport with 39 home runs, and they've beaten up on the Astros six of the last ten times out. 

Gil has stymied this Astros lineup in the past, and Houston's bullpen ranks dead last with a 5.94 ERA and 1.85 home runs per nine frames. Let the Yankees prevail!

Covers COVERS INTEL: Spencer Arrighetti has a low ERA, but his xFIP is nearly three runs higher with a 5.08 xERA this season. 

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Yankees vs Astros Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (-110)

Spencer Arrighetti has a high hard-hit rate, with an xERA of 5.04 and a walk rate over 15% through two starts.

Gil isn't far behind, with an xERA of 5.20, suggesting the Astros and their fourth-best 119 wRC+ will likely chase him after plating some runs. 

Both starters are due for regression, and totals set at 9.5 have a way of finding the Over when the bill comes due. 

The Over is 7-2-1 across the past 10 H2H meetings, and yesterday's 8-3 final shows this matchup still has teeth. Trust the trend.

Phil Naessens' 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets: 4-5, -0.20 units
  • Over/Under bets: 4-4, -0.06 units

Yankees vs Astros odds

  • Moneyline: Yankees -127 | Astros +122
  • Run line: Yankees -1.5 (+102) | Astros +1.5 (-156)
  • Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-108) | Under 9.5 (-104)

Yankees vs Astros trend

The Yankees have covered the run line in 23 of their last 35 away games for +14.05 units and a 37% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Astros.

How to watch Yankees vs Astros and game info

Location Daikin Park, Houston, TX
Date Sunday, April 26, 2026
First pitch 2:10 p.m. ET
TV YES, SCHN
Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil
(1-1, 4.11 ERA)
Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti
(2-0, 2.45 ERA)

Yankees vs Astros latest injuries

Yankees vs Astros weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu, Greece. He’s the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the Crush and Rush Tennis Podcast.

Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications, including Advance Local, SB Nation, FanSided, and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports. 

His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro men’s and women’s hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe, and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.

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