The New York Yankees are heavy home favorites against the Minnesota Twins tonight, but I’m not laying a taxed price during a seven-game losing streak.
Although Gerrit Cole's name still commands respect, Minnesota’s offense is hot enough to test a pitcher coming off two shaky starts. The total also points Over with Mike Paredes bringing major contact-quality risk.
Here are my Twins vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Friday, July 3.
Who will win Twins vs Yankees today: Twins +1.5 (-125)
I’m taking the Minnesota Twins at +1.5 and would play it down to -140.
Gerrit Cole still carries name value, but this New York Yankees team is hard to trust by margin. New York is hitting .137 during its seven-game losing streak and has been outscored 43-17 during that span.
Cole remains the better starter, but his 21.3% strikeout rate is well below peak form, while Minnesota has scored 96 runs with 25 homers over its last 16 games.
Mike Paredes is shaky (to put it kindly), but current form makes this run line playable.
COVERS INTEL: Gerrit Cole's Whiff% ranks in just the fourth percentile of baseball in 2026, which is one of the league's worst numbers among starting pitchers.
Twins vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (-122)
Paredes’ contact profile is hard to trust against any lineup with a pulse. He has allowed a 51.8% hard-hit rate this season while striking out only 11.8% of batters.
The Yankees are ice cold, but this is the right matchup to create traffic and end the drought. While the Twins will hang around, it won't come without simultaneously giving up runs.
Playable to 10 O/U.
Chris Hatfield's 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 33-30, +5.60 units
- Over/Under bets: 39-26, +17.62 units
Twins vs Yankees weather
Expect extreme heat conditions at Yankee Stadium, with temperatures hovering around 95F at game time. We could see the ball flying in the Bronx tonight.
Twins vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Twins +158 | Yankees -186
- Run line: Twins +1.5 (-125) | Yankees -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-122) | Under 9.5 (+100)
Twins vs Yankees trend
Minnesota has hit the game total Over in 28 of its last 40 road games (+17.10 Units / 39% ROI).
How to watch Twins vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Friday, July 3, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Twins.TV, YES |
| Twins starting pitcher | Mike Paredes (0-1, 4.26 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Gerrit Cole (2-3, 4.06 ERA) |
Twins vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
