I'm backing New York (59%) with my Rays vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for tonight's divisional clash.
The Tampa Bay Rays are 29 games over .500 at home compared to five games above on the road. They're not nearly as successful outside of The Trop, and I don't see that changing against Cam Schlittler at Yankee Stadium on Thursday, Sept. 24, with first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.
Who will win Rays vs Yankees today: Yankees moneyline
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The New York Yankees are an attractive buy up to 62%.
Despite missing Aaron Judge for the majority of the season, the Yankees rank second in xwOBA and first in barrel rate against left-handed pitching.
Their power is almost unmatched and will be very difficult for Ian Seymour — who has allowed 1.99 HR/9 this season — to handle in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Cam Schlittler sits in the 99th percentile in Pitcher Run Value. He’s in the elite of the elite and will find success against a Tampa Bay Rays team slotted 26th in xwOBA against RHP in September.
COVERS INTEL: Seymour's eighth-percentile barrel rate will get him into serious trouble against a Yankees offense leading the league in home runs.
Rays vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 6.5
I’m on the Over and would play it to 52%.
Seymour has struggled to keep the ball in the park this season and is showing no sign of improvement. His HR/9 over the past 10 starts is actually higher than his output for the year.
The Yankees hammer left-handed pitching and can hit for power in poor hitting weather, which opens the door for bulk scoring.
Schlittler’s numbers aren’t as good at home (2.98 ERA, 3.88 xERA). He’s also unlikely to get a full workload with the playoffs right around the corner.
Rays vs Yankees home run prediction: Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt has hit .307 with a .281 ISO and 13.1% barrel rate vs. left-handed pitching.
His numbers further increase when isolating the fastball-changeup combination Seymour relies heavily on, with the ISO climbing to .312.
Goldschmidt is a crafty hitter who will patiently wait for the right pitch, and he's capable of capitalizing on Seymour’s tendency to make loud mistakes.
Goldschmidt has homered in 24.1% of his games against left-handed starters ranking in the 60th percentile or worse in HR/9 vs. RHH.
- ML/RL picks: 122-101, -2.86 units
- Over/Under picks: 117-100-6, +3.46 units
Rays vs Yankees weather
Temperatures in the mid-60s are expected, with strong winds blowing in. Boost to the pitchers.
Rays vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Rays 42% | Yankees 59%
- Run line: Rays +1.5 (63%) | Yankees -1.5 (38%)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (46%) | Under 6.5 (55%)
Rays vs Yankees trend
New York has cleared the game total Over in 21 of the last 30 (+12.24 units, 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees.
How to watch Rays vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rays.TV, YES |
| Rays starting pitcher | Ian Seymour (9-7, 4.38 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Cam Schlittler (14-6, 1.94 ERA) |
Rays vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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