From matinees to nightcaps, our MLB expert picks for Wednesday, Sept. 23 have you covered.
Today's MLB picks include the Philadelphia Phillies and Minnesota Twins to win straight up, while the New York Yankees look good early against the Tampa Bay Rays.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: NYY F5 -0.5 |
48% |
 Jon Metler: PHI ML |
45% |
 Neil Parker: MIN ML |
58% |
 Joe Osborne: ATL -1.5 |
51% |
 Dustin Saracini: TOR/BAL o7.5 |
50% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Yankees F5 -0.5
Price: 48¢ at Polymarket
This is the best market to bet against the Tampa Bay Rays today.
The Rays captured the division last night in the second game of a doubleheader. A division win in the Bronx sounds like a great time, and one that might affect the following day's performance, especially early.
I expect Kevin Cash will rest his big names today, and this offense could be at its weakest against Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees, who just saw Tampa celebrate an AL East title at Yankee Stadium.
This is the better market than the Tampa team total at 2.5 or Yankees -1.5, as the bullpens have been busy throughout this series.
Check out Todd Cordell's full Rays vs. Yankees predictions.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Rays.TV, Amazon Prime Video
Jon Metler's expert pick: Phillies moneyline
Price: 45¢ at Polymarket
The Philadelphia Phillies are trading at 45% on Polymarket, and I'm hitting the button at that price, as I make them closer to 49% against the Milwaukee Brewers today.
The biggest factor behind my projection is the difference in urgency between these teams. The Phillies are locked in a three-way battle for positioning in the NL Wild Card race, so every game carries significant weight. Meanwhile, the Brewers are in the driver's seat for the NL's top seed and have already clinched a bye into the NLDS.
With little left to gain, I expect Milwaukee to prioritize pitch-count preservation for Logan Henderson and its high-leverage bullpen arms, while the Phillies should manage this game with a much greater sense of urgency.
For a different take on this game, Neil Parker has his complete Brewers vs. Phillies predictions ready to go.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Brewers.TV, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Neil Parker's expert pick: Twins moneyline
Price: 58¢ at Polymarket
Minnesota Twins starter Connor Prielipp has found a groove down the stretch, with a 2.90 xERA and 3.67 xFIP over his last five appearances, including consecutive wins.
Additionally, his 19.0% strikeout-to-walk rate during the run pops off the page.
The San Francisco Giants are also fielding a depleted lineup, with Drew Gilbert the lone hitter with at least 250 plate appearances in the majors this season.
Better yet, San Francisco is sending lefty Cesar Perdomo to the bump, and he’s been teed up for a 6.65 xERA and 6.11 xFIP across his past two starts.
I recommend the Minny moneyline to 60%.
Check out Neil's full Twins vs. Giants predictions.
- Time: 3:45 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Twins.TV, NBC Sports Bay Area
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Braves -1.5
Price: 51¢ at Polymarket
Sure, I’ll back Chris Sale and his 1.66 home ERA against a team that can’t hit lefties.
The Cincinnati Reds rank 28th in OPS against southpaws over the last two weeks with one of the highest strikeout rates. The Atlanta Braves are 10-3 in Sale’s home starts, giving them an ideal setup to rebound from a loss.
Andrew Abbott has been absolutely obliterated away from home, allowing 23 earned runs across his last four road starts. And the bullpen won’t offer much relief: Cincinnati's pen ranks dead last in ERA (6.04) and 29th in FIP over the last two weeks.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Reds.TV, BravesVsn
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Blue Jays vs. Orioles Over 7.5
Price: 50¢ at Polymarket
We see clear value here (I price this around 53%), making this matchup a great spot to target.
The Toronto Blue Jays face a familiar face in former teammate Chris Bassitt, whose solid recent starts mask a concerning 4.96 xERA.
Expect Toronto to generate plenty of traffic against Bassitt, who owns career-worst marks in xBA (.279) and strikeout rate (16.4%).
George Springer should take advantage, having hit two homers alongside a .631 xSLG across 26 career plate appearances against the right-hander. Max Scherzer, who was tagged for six earned runs by the Baltimore Orioles just 12 days ago, mans the other mound.
All indicators point to offensive fireworks this afternoon.
Check out Dustin's full Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions for Game 1 of today's doubleheader.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Sportsnet, MASN
More MLB picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| DET -1.5 | 42% |
| Read analysis in our Nationals vs. Tigers predictions | |
| BOS ML | 55% |
| Read analysis in our Guardians vs. Red Sox predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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