After sweeping yesterday's props, we're looking to run it back tonight.
I found two Miami Marlins bats that I think are set for a big night. I also see Orioles slugger Pete Alonso getting the evening started on the right foot.
Here are my three favorite MLB player props for August 4.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Pete Alonso |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -144 |
 Griffin Conine |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | +103 |
| Owen Caissie |
1+ hits | -154 |
Pete Alonso Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-144)
You like delicious trends?
What if I told you that, when rated elite on Batters-Box, Baltimore Orioles slugger Pete Alonso goes Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI 62% of the time? That's across 137 elite-rated games over the last three seasons.
Want more? In 58 elite-rated home games during that same span, he's gone Over this prop nearly 70% of the time.
Tonight, Alonso draws a mouthwatering matchup against Los Angeles Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, who has been tormented by right-handed hitters this season. Across the last 60 right-handed batters he's faced, they've produced a 51.2% hard-hit rate, 19.5% barrel rate, and 68.3% elevation rate. They also own a .386 xBA, .778 xSLG, and .341 ISO during that stretch.
Alonso has also been scorching over his last 10 games, posting a .300 batting average, .318 xBA, 146 wRC+, and .617 SLG. During that span, he's generated a 62.5% hard-hit rate, 15.6% barrel rate, and 84.7% contact rate.
Backing one of the hottest bats in this Orioles lineup is a must tonight. I'd play this down to -150, or look for a boost.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, ABTV
Griffin Conine Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+103)
It's another lovely day to back the son of "Mr. Marlin," Griffin Conine.
The Miami Marlins outfielder draws a great matchup against Atlanta Braves right-hander Grant Holmes. Not only does Conine carry an elite Batters-Box rating, but he also covers nearly 90% of Holmes' pitch mix.
Over his last 10 games, Conine has generated a 70% elevation rate, 60% hard-hit rate, and 15% barrel rate. During that span, he's also posted a 244 wRC+, .508 SLG, and .950 OPS.
Holmes, on the other hand, has struggled over his last three starts, recording a 5.52 ERA, 5.69 xERA, and 1.64 WHIP while allowing a 40% hard-hit rate and 14% barrel rate. The last 30 left-handed hitters he's faced have produced a .377 xBA, .661 xSLG, and .439 ISO.
I think Conine is in a great spot to go over his hits, runs, and RBI prop tonight. Don't pay juice for this one.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVsn, MIAM
Owen Caissie 1+ hits (-154)
We just need the bare minimum from Owen Caissie, who has been just as hot as Conine.
Over his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Caissie has generated a 53% hard-hit rate and a massive 26.5% barrel rate. On top of that, he's posted a .667 SLG, 1.000 OPS, and .389 ISO.
Caissie enters Tuesday with an elite Batters-Box rating while carrying 53.3% arsenal coverage against Grant Holmes. Even with the lower arsenal coverage, he still owns excellent expected numbers against Holmes' secondary offerings.
Against sliders and curveballs, Caissie has produced at least a .263 xBA while generating 50% hard contact.
Right-handed hitters have also been feasting against Holmes. Over the last 30 right-handed batters he's faced, they've generated a 40% hard-hit rate, 12% barrel rate, and 64% elevation rate. During that stretch, they've also posted a .319 xBA, .614 xSLG, and .362 xwOBA.
Through 14 elite Batters-Box ratings this season, Caissie has recorded at least one hit 64.29% of the time. I'd play this down to -160, but if you can find the same price on Over 0.5 hits, runs, and RBI, I'd rather go that route.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVsn, MIAM
- Prop picks: 359-711, -20.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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