Thursday's MLB card is loaded with star power, and a few of baseball's biggest bats find themselves in favorable matchups.
Before locking in your MLB player props, here are the hitters my MLB picks are targeting to leave their mark tonight.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Yandy Diaz |
Over 1.5 total bases | -140 |
 Shohei Ohtani |
Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI | +101 |
| Max Muncy |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -106 |
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 total bases (-140)
A lot of people will be rushing to bet Junior Caminero tonight, given the six-game home run streak, but I think the veteran is the better option. Yandy Diaz checks more boxes than Caminero in my opinion.
First off, Diaz covers over 80% of Royals right-hander Stephen Kolek’s pitch mix. His arsenal grades out more than 50% below league average, per FanGraphs.
The only two above-average pitches in the mix are the fastball and sinker. Diaz against sinkers this season is hitting .414 with a 1.066 OPS and a .479 wOBA. Against fastballs, his expected batting average is still north of .300.
The Tampa Bay Rays veteran has also been generating an alarming amount of hard contact. Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he owns a 71.4% hard-hit rate while hitting .320 with an .840 OPS and a .369 wOBA. Kolek at home against right-handed hitters is allowing a 40.5% hard-hit rate and nearly a 62% fly-ball rate.
I know this prop is super-juiced, but I would look for a boost, play his home run and double combo, or take him to record two hits.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, RAYS
Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (+101)
Finally, some value!
The great one enters today with an elite rating covering 82.7% of Randy Vásquez’s entire pitch mix on Batters-Box. Tonight will mark Shohei Ohtani’s 314th elite rating over the last three seasons. In the previous 313, these are his records:
- 1+ hits: 74.44%
- 2+ hits: 33.87%
- Home run: 29.71%
- 2+ total bases: 55.87%
- 2+ HRR: 66.13%
- 3+ HRR: 50.48%
Ohtani has surpassed this prop in six of his last ten elite-rated home games.
On top of that, the Los Angeles Dodgers slugger in his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he owns a .346 AVG, .462 SLG, and .862 OPS. He's also generating a 50% hard-hit rate and a 9.1% barrel rate during that stretch.
For Vásquez, the last 30 lefties he has faced have produced a 57.7% hard-hit rate, 19.2% barrel rate, and 65.4% elevation rate. Those lefties own a .764 xSLG and .596 xwOBA in that span.
People forget, this can cash with one swing of the bat, and I already like him to go yard tonight. Do not pay juice for this... plus money only!
- Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLBN
Max Muncy Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-106)
Snagging this price for Max Muncy Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI in a spot that covers 88.9% of Randy Vásquez's pitch mix and grades out elite on Batters-Box is a gift.
Sure, in his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he has just a .214 average and .553 OPS, but across his last 90, he owns a .440 SLG, .777 OPS, and .343 wOBA.
In addition, in 95 elite ratings over the last three seasons, Muncy has cleared this prop 53.68% of the time, hitting it in five of his last 10 elite-rated spots.
With how poorly Vásquez has been against lefties, I think this is a strong price to back Muncy. I would not play it past -115.
- Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLBN
- Prop picks: 251-481, -20.2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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