The Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies wrap up a series this afternoon, as Philly eyes a sweep.
The P's come into this one as a short -122 home favorite, and it's not difficult for me to understand why. I'll be backing them as they hold a clear pitching advantage in this matchup.
Here are my Pirates vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for July 2.
Who will win Pirates vs Phillies today: Phillies moneyline (-126)
Alan Rangel is set to make his first career start for the Philadelphia Phillies. While the specifics of his pitch count haven't been confirmed, I believe he's the best setup for success between the two hurlers today and would play Philly down to -135 because of it.
Rangel gets hitters to expand, carrying a 38.9% chase rate, and the Pittsburgh Pirates have a whiff rate of just over 27% — the highest in the league.
On the other hand, Jared Jones' 9.7% barrel rate allowed figures problematic against a team with plenty of power.
COVERS INTEL: Jared Jones' average exit velocity is one of the highest allowed in the league, sitting in the Bottom 19 percent of the sport.
Pirates vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 10.5 (-107)
I like the Under with a projection of 9.4. Jones can give up damage, but he still misses enough bats to avoid a complete unraveling, and the Phillies’ offense has been closer to average than elite at 4.52 runs per game.
Rangel is the bigger reason I’m comfortable below this number. His chase-heavy profile attacks a Pirates lineup with MLB’s highest whiff rate, giving him a path to soft counts and strikeout leverage. This total is priced as if both starters get hit (and hard), and I don’t agree.
I'd play this to -120.
- ML/RL bets: 33-29, +6.86 units
- Over/Under bets: 38-26, +16.62 units
Pirates vs Phillies weather
Pirates vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Pirates +114 | Phillies -124
- Run line: Pirates +1.5 | Phillies -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 10.5 | Under 10.5
Pirates vs Phillies trend
The Phillies have cashed the moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games for +10.60 units and a 17% ROI.
How to watch Pirates vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Thursday, July 2, 2026 |
| First pitch | 12:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet Pittsburgh, NBC Sports Philadelphia |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Jared Jones (1-1, 5.76 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Alan Rangel (0-1, 4.50 ERA) |
Pirates vs Phillies latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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