The San Diego Padres roll into PNC Park tonight for the opening game of a three-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Pittsburgh righty Mitch Keller and his wicked sweeper could play well tonight, and my Padres vs. Pirates predictions target Keller’s strikeout prop total.
Read on for my MLB picks for Friday, May 2.
Padres vs Pirates prediction
My Padres vs Pirates best bet: Mitch Keller Over 4.5 strikeouts (+112 at FanDuel)
The Pittsburgh Pirates are riding the struggle bus. They’ve dropped four of five and watched the Chicago Cubs roast ace Paul Skenes Thursday afternoon.
Making matters worse? The San Diego Padres are rolling into town on a two-game winning streak, and their offense can rake with the best of them.
The Padres have an aggressive offense, boasting the lowest strikeout rate (18.6%) and the fifth-highest BABIP (.306) against right-handed pitchers.
San Diego’s low strikeout rate has been rising (22%) across the Padres' past seven games, opening the door for Mitch Keller and his sweeper to rack up a few strikeouts tonight.
Keller doesn’t have the gas to blow anyone away, but he’s struck out eight per nine over his career at PNC Park behind a devastating sweeper with a 33% whiff rate against aggressive right-handed bats.
Keller’s high groundball rate should fare well tonight with the wind blowing out to left. Keller has gone 6+ frames in four of his six starts and should pitch deep enough to benefit from at least five Padres boasting whiff rates over 25%.
We’re getting a reasonable price for a market Keller has cleared in two of his previous four starts, and I’m betting the Pirates righty strikes out 5+ Padres tonight.
Padres vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)
Mitch Keller 5+ strikeouts
Oneil Cruz 2+ total bases
Fernando Tatis Jr. 2+ total bases
I like Keller to get his whiffs. With the wind blowing out to left field, we’ll target the total bases props for Pirates OF Oneil Cruz and Padres OF Fernando Tatis Jr.
Cruz has recorded 2+ total bases in six of his previous 10 games, with a two-game, two total base hitting streak on the line. Cruz is raking righties like Padres starter Dylan Cruz for a 1.049 OPS, and his .317 BABIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky.
Tatis Jr. boasts a 1.099 OPS against right-handers. He’s cleared 2+ total bases in five of his previous 10 games. His .375 BABIP against righties suggests the Padres OF could have a big night at the dish.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Pirates odds
Padres vs Pirates live odds
Padres vs Pirates opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego (-142) | Pittsburgh (+120)
- Run line: San Diego -1.5 (+116) | Pittsburgh +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-122) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Padres vs Pirates trend
The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in six of their last eight away games (+4.10 Units / 45% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Pirates.
How to watch Padres vs Pirates and game info
| Location | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania |
| Date | Friday, 5-2-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Padres starting pitcher | Dylan Cease (1-2, 5.76 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Mitch Keller (1-2, 3.97 ERA) |
Padres vs Pirates latest injuries
Padres vs Pirates weather
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