In their first game back from the All-Star break, the Cleveland Guardians welcome the San Diego Padres to Progressive Field.
The MLB odds have Cleveland as a -150 moneyline favorite thanks in part to their star bat fresh off his first All-Star appearance — and my Padres vs. Guardians prediction’s for Steven Kwan to keep riding the momentum.
Find out why below, with my MLB picks for July 19.
Padres vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Steven Kwan Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
After two seasons in which his defense was more notable than his offense, Steven Kwan has been a breakout star in Cleveland this season. The third-year outfielder has gone from a Gold Glove-winning lead-off hitter to the best contact bat in baseball.
Kwan leads MLB in batting average (.352), and his dominance since returning from an injury on May 31 earned him his first All-Star appearance. Kwan has racked up 78 total bases in 37 games since returning to the Cleveland Guardians lineup.
Averaging 2.1 total bases per game during that stretch, his hot play should continue out of the All-Star break, especially with Matt Waldron taking the mound for the San Diego Padres. After a solid June, Waldron has struggled in July, giving up 11 hits, seven earned runs, and three dingers in just two starts.
He was shaky in April and May, too, with opponents batting .256-plus in both months against him. He got housed by the Atlanta Braves his last time on the mound, and it won’t be any easier against Kwan and Cleveland.
While Waldron’s go-to pitch is his knuckleball (38.4%) — a pitch Kwan has yet to see this season — he may not lean too heavily on it with his recent struggles. If he gets away from it, he has three other pitches he’s using more than 13% of the time.
Waldron’s got his sweeper (21%), four-seamer (20.9%), and sinker (13.8%), and Kwan has been blasting all three of those pitches this season. The Guardians’ star is batting .378 or better against all three, with a .552-plus SLG against all of them.
Even if Waldron does go to his knuckle early and often, Kwan hasn’t had trouble with breaking balls this season. He’s batting .313 against them with six extra-base hits in 64 plate appearances.
Padres vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Steven Kwan Over 1.5 total bases
Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 hit
Jurickson Profar Over 0.5 hit
Kwan isn’t the only All-Star taking the field for Cleveland, Jose Ramirez just made his sixth appearance thanks to his 23 homers in 92 games. The Guardians’ third baseman is coming off a pretty special June in which he slashed .298/.340/.564 with seven homers, and he’ll look to keep that up against Waldron — who has allowed six of his 12 homers in his last five starts.
San Diego has a quartet of All-Stars, too, and while there are bigger names than Jurickson Profar among them, he’s been the Padres’ most consistent bat. Profar leads the team in total bases (161) and batting average (.305). And with Tanner Bibee starting for Cleveland, he should keep it up. He’s batting .290 or better against two of Bibee’s top three pitches.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Guardians odds
Padres vs Guardians live odds
Padres vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-190) | Cleveland -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: San Diego -110 | Cleveland -110
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Padres vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- Despite winning just one of its last five before the All-Star break, Cleveland’s a -140 to -154 moneyline favorite against San Diego.
- The Guardians are 58-37 on the season and lead the AL Central by 4.5 games, while the Padres are 50-49 and sit seven back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.
- The Over/Under opened at 7.5 and has seen little movement. Some books are offering the Under at even money.
- San Diego is one of the better Over teams in MLB at 53-45-1, and Cleveland isn't far behind at 47-42-6.
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Padres vs Guardians trend
The Guardians have hit the team total Over in 25 of their last 36 games at home (+13.20 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Guardians
Padres vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Friday, 7-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Matt Waldron (5-8, 3.71 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Tanner Bibee (7-4, 3.77 ERA) |
Padres vs Guardians latest injuries
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