The Los Angeles Dodgers are slight 53% favorites over the San Diego Padres for today's series opener, and we have you covered with our top Padres vs. Dodgers predictions.
Michael King gets the nod for the visitors, and my MLB picks think that's enough to give the edge in L.A., with first pitch set for 10:10 p.m. ET on TBS at Dodger Stadium.
Who will win Padres vs Dodgers today: Padres moneyline
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Play the San Diego Padres at anything below 50% given their pitching advantage and red-hot lineup.
They've won six of Michael King's last eight starts, a stretch during which he's posted a 1.98 ERA. The lineup has also been in peak form, pacing MLB with a .391 wOBA and 152 wRC+ in the last 14 days.
There's also a motivational edge. The Los Angeles Dodgers have wrapped up the division and have secured a first-round bye, whereas the Padres are still jockeying for position atop the Wild Card race.
COVERS INTEL: In his last eight starts, Michael King has induced a 17% soft contact rate. On the season, he ranks in the 85th percentile in average exit velocity and the 88th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5
The Padres typically play in low-scoring games with King on the bump, going 10-19-2 O/U across his 31 starts.
L.A. is going with a bullpen game for this contest, but that's not such a bad thing given its strong recent performance. The Boys in Blue have a 3.18 FIP and league-best 2.76 SIERA in relief across the last 14 days and are fortified with Roki Sasaki's return to his natural role in the pen.
San Diego has a deadly bullpen, sporting a 3.61 FIP on the year. All of the top arms, including Mason Miller, will be available after Monday's day of rest.
Padres vs Dodgers home run prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been scoring hot at the dish, leaving the yard five times in his last nine games.
Dodger Stadium's 124 Park Factor for home runs means that there's an increased chance of Tatis continuing his fine form by popping a long ball.
- ML/RL picks: 33-35, -6.6 units
- Over/Under picks: 40-29, +9.0 units
Padres vs Dodgers weather
The slight breeze out to center field could help long-ball hitters.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
- Moneyline: Padres 47% | Dodgers 54%
- Run line: Padres +1.5 (66%) | Dodgers -1.5 (37%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (53%)
Padres vs Dodgers trend
The Padres are 6-2 in Michael King's last eight starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Padres vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, Calif. |
| Date | Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Padres starting pitcher | Michael King (12-9, 3.03 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (14-8, 2.51 ERA) |
Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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