The San Diego Padres hope to snap a six-game losing streak and gain some ground in the NL West race as they face the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.
Oddsmakers aren’t giving San Diego (+223) much of a chance against L.A. (-233) with superstar Shohei Ohtani on the bump, but my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions believe the Ohtani tax is too high.
Read on for my full MLB picks for Friday, July 3.
Who will win Padres vs Dodgers tonight: Padres (+215)
These odds are inflated since the San Diego Padres have surrendered a whopping 35 runs in their last two games alone, bringing their losing streak to six, and they now have to face Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani (1.58 ERA).
However, that doesn't account for the fact that San Diego has been red-hot at the plate, posting a 130 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days.
Ohtani's great, but this is a premium price for someone whose underlying profile (3.33 xFIP, 3.42 botERA) points toward some regression.
I'd play the underdog down to +210.
COVERS INTEL: Shohei Ohtani has shown signs of mortality in his last three starts, surrendering nine earned runs. In that time frame, the Padres have eight different position players with a wRC+ above 130. 
Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-121)
Michael King induces soft contact and keeps the ball on the ground, ranking in the 73rd percentile or better in ground ball rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity. That’ll help him avoid a fireworks show, and the Padres have hit the Under in 13 of his 17 starts.
Despite Ohtani showing some signs of weakness lately, he has the second-lowest ERA in the Big Leagues. Naturally, L.A. has played in low-scoring games with him on the bump, going 3-10 O/U.
With two effective starting pitchers on the bump, that’s enough to counteract two in-form lineups.
- ML/RL bets: 25-23, -1.85 units
- Over/Under bets: 32-17, +14.23 units
Padres vs Dodgers weather
Temperatures will be in the upper 70s at Chavez Ravine, cooling into the 60s as the game progresses. Light winds shouldn't play much of a factor for either offense.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
- Moneyline: Padres +215 | Dodgers -240
- Run line: Padres +1.5 (-105) | Dodgers -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+109) | Under 8.5 (-121)
Padres vs Dodgers trend
San Diego is 4-13 O/U in Michael King’s starts this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Padres vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Friday, July 3, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Padres starting pitcher | Michael King (5-7, 3.55 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Shohei Ohtani (8-2, 1.58 ERA) |
Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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