Our Saturday MLB moneyline predictions feature a strong mix of large underdogs and short favorites in solid individual and team matchups across the 15-game slate.
Read on for my MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 5.
MLB moneyline picks for September 5
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 SFvs  NYM |
38% |
 CHCvs  MIA |
55% |
 ATLvs  PHI |
59% |
 DETvs  CLE |
58% |
 LAAvs  PIT |
35% |
 MILvs  CIN |
38% |
 BOSvs  BAL |
58% |
 TBvs  TEX |
48% |
 TORvs  KC |
48% |
|
|
 47% |
 AZvs  HOU |
52% |
 NYYvs  SD |
53% |
 STLvs  COL |
53% |
 WSHvs  LAD |
28% |
 ATHvs  SEA |
35% |
CWSPrices courtesy of Polymarket as of September 5.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 5
Unless otherwise noted, all stats are from FanGraphs and are from the last 14 days.
Giants vs Mets: San Francisco Giants
Giants win probability: 38%
New York is priced too high, despite scuffling with a 91 wRC+ over the last two weeks. San Francisco’s offense sits comfortably above league average (109 wRC+), giving Anthony Molina solid run support. At this price, you are getting generous plus-money against a slumping Mets lineup.
Cubs vs Marlins: Chicago Cubs
Cubs win probability: 55%
Chicago is the hottest offense in baseball over the last 14 days, pacing MLB with a 151 wRC+ and .917 OPS. Ryan Gusto faces a relentless lineup, and while Chicago’s bullpen can be volatile, Miami’s 93 wRC+ and 4.38 relief SIERA lack the firepower to capitalize on late-inning mistakes.
Braves vs Phillies: Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies win probability: 59%
Zack Wheeler gives Philadelphia a clear starting pitching edge over Martín Pérez. Atlanta's bullpen ERA (2.18) is an illusion propped up by an unsustainable 82.7% strand rate against an underwhelming 4.27 SIERA. Philadelphia’s bullpen ranks second in baseball (3.19 SIERA), providing the late-inning stability needed to cash at the window.
Tigers vs Guardians: Cleveland Guardians
Guardians win probability: 58%
Detroit’s offense is completely dead, ranking dead last in baseball with an abysmal 55 wRC+ and .187 batting average. Even with Framber Valdez starting, the Tigers’ 4.66 relief SIERA cannot hold leads. Cleveland brings a league-best bullpen (3.03 SIERA) and a 105 wRC+ offense at a very reasonable and playable price.
Angels vs Pirates: Los Angeles Angels
Angels win probability: 35%
Pittsburgh is priced like a heavy favorite despite an anemic offense that has produced a 74 wRC+ and a .094 ISO. Braxton Ashcraft does not warrant laying that kind of price against anyone. Yusei Kikuchi gives the Angels enough competent starter innings to make this massive underdog worth taking.
Brewers vs Reds: Cincinnati Reds
Reds win probability: 38%
Milwaukee is laying steep chalk at -164 that violates value rules. Cincinnati’s lineup ranks seventh in baseball over the last two weeks (111 wRC+, .194 ISO), bringing genuine power against Dustin May. Backing Andrew Abbott at big-dog money offers tremendous leverage against a Milwaukee bullpen sporting a 4.49 xFIP.
Red Sox vs Orioles: Boston Red Sox
Red Sox win probability: 58%
Sonny Gray gives Boston the early advantage against Chris Bassitt. Boston's offense has remained steady with a 109 wRC+ and minimal swing-and-miss (18.8% K%), whereas Baltimore’s lineup sits near the bottom third with a 94 wRC+. Gray should work deep enough to hand Boston a lead at a fair price.
Rays vs Rangers: Texas Rangers
Rangers win probability: 48%
Texas is swinging the bats at an elite level, ranking second in MLB with a 124 wRC+ over the last fortnight. Jacob deGrom at home as a plus-money underdog against a flat Tampa Bay offense (84 wRC+) is the clearest form-versus-price discrepancy on the entire Saturday slate.
Blue Jays vs Royals: Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays win probability: 48%
This will likely become a pitcher's duel between Max Scherzer and Seth Lugo, but late-inning profiles separate them. Kansas City’s bullpen is generating almost no whiffs (16.4% K%, 4.49 SIERA). Toronto’s relievers are striking out 27.1% of batters with a 3.56 SIERA, giving the Blue Jays the clear advantage at plus-money.
Twins vs White Sox: Minnesota Twins
Twins win probability: 47%
Minnesota's lineup is driving the ball with authority, posting a 111 wRC+ and .191 ISO with an exceptionally low 17.1% strikeout rate over the last two weeks. Anthony Kay is prone to hard contact, giving Taj Bradley and the Twins solid value as live road underdogs, and the Twinkies are ripe for the picking.
Diamondbacks vs Astros: Houston Astros
Astros win probability: 52%
At near pick'em odds, Houston has the decisive bullpen advantage. Houston relievers have dominated with a 3.02 FIP and 3.55 SIERA over the last two weeks. Arizona’s offense is sputtering down at an 84 wRC+, making Ethan Pecko and the Astros' superior bullpen the correct side tonight.
Yankees vs Padres: New York Yankees
Yankees win probability: 53%
Carlos Rodón and Robbie Ray should duel, but New York holds the offensive edge. The Yankees boast a 112 wRC+ over the last 14 days, compared to San Diego’s sluggish 91 wRC+. With pricing set essentially at pick'em, back the lineup producing extra-base hits at a higher rate.
Cardinals vs Rockies: St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals win probability: 53%
Colorado’s bullpen is the worst in the show over the last two weeks, posting an awful 6.1% K-BB% and 4.79 SIERA. While Coors Field is always a wild card, Matthew Liberatore faces a Colorado offense with an 86 wRC+. Laying the modest juice against Colorado's leaky bullpen is a solid play.
Nationals vs Dodgers: Washington Nationals
Nationals win probability: 28%
The Dodgers are entirely unplayable at this big a number, especially with an offense slugging just .324 (93 wRC+) over the last two weeks. Cade Cavalli has live stuff, and while Tyler Glasnow is dominant, paying a 72% implied price tag on a slumping Dodgers lineup provides zero mathematical cushion.
Athletics vs Mariners: Athletics
Athletics win probability: 35%
Seattle's price is far too high. Seattle's bullpen has been a disaster over the last two weeks with a 6.94 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. Meanwhile, the A’s offense is quietly raking with a 113 wRC+ and a .276 average. Jeffrey Springs gives Oakland a live upset chance and a massive payday.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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