The Texas Rangers are 55% favorites to avoid the sweep and pick up a much-needed win against the New York Mets tonight.
The Rangers have feasted on left-handed pitchers this season, and my Mets vs. Rangers prediction expects that to continue against Zac Thornton, who has not been quite as stingy as he appears.
Let's break down my MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 24,
Who will win Mets vs Rangers today: Texas Rangers
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I’m on the Texas Rangers up to 58%. They have hit lefties well all year, and their recent form offers even more encouraging signs.
Texas sits first in hard-hit rate, second in xwOBA, and third in barrels against southpaws since Aug. 1.
Zac Thornton ranks in the 13th percentile in expected batting average allowed. He has not pitched as well as the surface stats suggest, and there’s a good chance this Rangers offense will expose that.
Former New York Mets pick Kumar Rocker has conceded two or fewer runs in five of his last six. He should be OK against a subpar Mets attack.
COVERS INTEL: Thornton's 9.6% barrel rate (14th percentile) makes him vulnerable to damage against a powerful Rangers offense.
Mets vs Rangers Over/Under pick: Over 8.5
This game has sneaky run potential, making the over an appealing play to 52%. The Rangers possess real firepower against left-handed pitching.
They get on base, they hit the ball hard, and they score. Only six teams have more RBI against lefties, and five of them have at least 100 more at-bats.
Thornton has allowed 2.17 HR/9 the past month, and the Rangers should take advantage.
New York has a real path to scoring as well. Rocker owns a sky-high 1.59 WHIP over the last 30 days, and Texas’ bullpen has the league’s fifth-highest ERA in September.
Mets vs Rangers home run prediction: Corey Seager (19%)
It’s been feast or famine for Corey Seager against southpaws of late, but we don’t care about the average outcome. We’re chasing ceilings, and Seager has a high one.
Seager owns a .204 ISO and a hefty 16.7% barrel rate over the last 25 games against fastballs and cutters thrown by LHP.
Thornton ranks in the 17th percentile in HR/FB against lefties in his past six starts. He’s giving up a ton of power to lefties, and Seager is a prime candidate to make him pay.
- ML/RL picks: 122-101, -2.86 units
- Over/Under picks: 117-100-6, +3.46 units
Mets vs Rangers weather
This game will be played indoors.
Mets vs Rangers odds
- Moneyline: Mets 46% | Rangers 55%
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (64%) | Rangers -1.5 (37%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (49%) | Under 8.5 (52%)
Mets vs Rangers trend
Texas has hit the game total Over in 33 of their last 50 at home (+15.50 units, 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Rangers.
How to watch Mets vs Rangers and game info
| Location | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Thursday, September 24, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, RSN |
| Mets starting pitcher | Zac Thornton (5-5, 3.40 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher | Kumar Rocker (5-11, 4.47 ERA) |
Mets vs Rangers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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