The second installment of this NL series gets underway on Saturday evening with the Cincinnati Reds hosting the San Francisco Giants at Great American Ball Park. MLB odds have Cincinnati as a moderate -146 favorite, while my Giants vs. Red predictions are eyeing the 8.5-run total.
Find out why in our MLB picks below.
Giants vs Reds prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The San Francisco Giants hand the ball to left-hander Kyle Harrison and he's pitched solidly this season. He's 6-4 through 18 starts with a 3.69 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.
This success is likely to continue against the Cincinnati Reds, a team he possesses a 2.38 ERA against through two career meetings.
Furthermore, Cincinnati ranks in the bottom half of the league this season in hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and home runs. Through 23 combined career plate appearances against Harrison, this current Reds lineup possesses a mere .143 BA, .238 SLG, and .208 wOBA.
However, they can remain in this game, considering that right-hander Hunter Greene is slated to take the mound. Putting together an excellent campaign, the former second-overall draft pick is 7-4 through 21 starts with a dominant 2.97 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
He also ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Giants vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 9
Hunter Greene Over 7.5 strikeouts
Reds moneyline
We're also going to back Greene in the prop market, considering how much of a dominant strikeout pitcher he is. The right-hander ranks in the 79th percentile in whiff rate and 80th percentile in strikeout rate.
If we are backing another dominating performance from Greene, then a highly correlated outcome would be for the Reds to pull out the win. Greene outranks Harrison in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Reds odds
Giants vs Reds live odds
Giants vs Reds opening odds
- Run line: San Francisco +1.5 (-165) | Cincinnati -1.5 (+140)
- Moneyline: San Francisco +115 | Cincinnati -135
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Giants vs Reds spread and Over/Under analysis
- Cincinnati opened as a -146 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- I believe this line will grow wider as we approach first pitch because, analytically, Greene is a much stronger pitcher than Harrison.
- The total opened at 8.5 and also remains at that price.
- I think it's far more likely that this total moves to 8 rather than 9, given both starting pitchers’ success this year.
Giants vs Reds trend
The Under is 4-1 across Hunter Greene’s past five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Reds.
Giants vs Reds game info
| Location: | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Kyle Harrison (6-4, 3.69 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Hunter Greene (7-4, 2.97 ERA) |
Giants vs Reds latest injuries
Giants vs Reds weather
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