A powerful nor’easter pushed the regular-season finale out of Boston, sending the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox to Tropicana Field in just the sixth weather relocation in MLB history.
Chicago sits at a 54% implied probability on the moneyline, with first pitch set for 3:05 p.m. ET. The neutral venue shapes my Cubs vs. Red Sox prediction, which backs Chicago on the moneyline and leans Under the total.
Read more in my MLB picks for Sunday, Sept. 27.
Who will win Cubs vs Red Sox today: Cubs moneyline
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I’d play this to 57%. The Chicago Cubs get the edge on the starting pitching setup, and 54% is a fair price for it.
Shota Imanaga enters with a 3.74 ERA and 171 strikeouts, and he held Miami to one earned run over five innings his last time out, walking nobody while striking out seven.
The Boston Red Sox have also been lost against left-handed pitching lately, producing just a .611 OPS against lefties over the last 30 days.
Both clubs have clinched, but Chicago is still chasing a higher Wild Card seed, and Boston loses the Fenway environment entirely as the designated home team in a neutral indoor park.
COVERS INTEL: Shota Imanaga owns a 1.96 ERA over his last four starts, while Boston has managed just a .611 OPS against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days.
Cubs vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Under 7.5
The venue change and the recent offensive form make Under 7.5 my preferred total play up to 55%.
The strongest number comes from the Red Sox’s recent game log. Nine of Boston’s last 10 games have finished with seven or fewer combined runs.
The bullpens support a lower-scoring finish too. Boston’s relief corps owns a 2.76 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season, while Chicago’s bullpen has allowed only two earned runs across 13 1/3 innings over its last three games.
The game moving from Fenway to Tropicana also takes away Boston’s normal home hitting environment. With Imanaga pitching well and both bullpens capable of closing down the later innings, I see this final score landing closer to 3-2 or 4-2.
Cubs vs Red Sox home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong is my preferred home run target at 21%, and I’d play him to 23% for a quarter-unit.
Crow-Armstrong enters the finale with 45 home runs, which makes him a great play no matter who Boston starts. He's hit 34 homers with a .600 slugging percentage and .970 OPS against right-handed pitching, giving him elite production in the matchup he's most likely to see.
He has also held his own against lefties, with 11 home runs, a .505 SLG and .879 OPS in 230 plate appearances. Boston has yet to settle on a traditional starter, so having legitimate power against either handedness matters more than usual.
Tropicana is not an ideal home run environment, so the appeal is getting one of the game’s best power bats at a higher price than normal.
- ML/RL picks: 5-12, -7.73 units
- Over/Under picks: 11-6, +4.23 units
Cubs vs Red Sox weather
This game is being played in a dome.
Cubs vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: Cubs 54% | Red Sox 47%
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Cubs vs Red Sox trend
The first two games of this series produced just nine combined runs, suggesting we're headed for the Under again today. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Cubs vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date | Sunday, September 27, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marquee, NESN |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Shota Imanaga (11-10, 3.74 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | TBD |
Cubs vs Red Sox latest injuries
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