The ridiculous 162-game schedule is ending, but there's still one day to squeeze some juice out of MLB player props, and a home run slate that might have the least amount of liquidity in the market this season.
Zack Gelof is back on the card in a better matchup versus a short-rested pitcher, it's another fade with Shota Imanaga, and Munetaka Murakami won't see much of the left-handed starter at home against the Rockies.
These are my favorite home run props for Sunday, Sept. 27.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
 Zack Gelof |
17% |
 Trevor Story |
11% |
 Munetaka Murakami |
21% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 243x |
Home run prediction: Zack Gelof
There's one more day to take advantage of Sutter Health Park. It's the best Over park in baseball and one that still isn't priced correctly after 162 games.
Zack Gelof has been promoted up the lineup and gets Houston starter Peter Lambert, who's pitching on short rest. Gelof has already put a notch in his belt against Lambert, with one dinger in four plate appearances against the righty.
Gelof has homered in four of his last five series along with producing a .920 OPS at home, and he's tallied 15 homers against right-handed pitching. I'd play Gelof to 5x today.
- Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, Space City Home Network
Home run prediction: Trevor Story
Trevor Story sits near the top of the +EV home run bets today, per the projections. His fair price is around 7x compared to this 9.8x.
He gets a pitcher who has allowed the second-most home runs in baseball over the last two seasons in Shota Imanaga. The lefty is always featured here because he brings +EV dinger props. He's a good pitcher, but Imanaga allows plenty of homers. He's posted the 13th-worst HR/9 over the last two seasons among starting pitchers with a minimum of 100 innings, along with the 27th-worst HR/FB rate.
The Cubs own the tiebreaker over the Phillies, so their spot in the playoffs is locked in. There could be some mop-up arms for Story to face late in this game, too.
- Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, Marquee Sports Network
Home run prediction: Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami went yard twice in this series on Friday and gets Kyle Freeland at home with winds blowing out to his pull side.
Freeland's leash is short after throwing 69 pitches in his last start and 50 in the outing before that. Murakami could be facing a right-handed reliever come his third at-bat. The Colorado starter has put up a 6.96 ERA away from Coors Field, and there could be some awful mop-up arms to end the Rockies' losing season, with one of their two lefty options out of the bullpen unavailable.
The rookie might not hit .210, but he's launched 35 homers and posted an .826 OPS heading into the final game of the regular season.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network, Rockies.TV
- HR picks: 41-155, -13.2 units
Best home run combo for Sept. 27
| Zack Gelof |
Trade Now 243x |
| Trevor Story |
|
| Munetaka Murakami |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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