The Philadelphia Eagles are lucky not to be 0-2, but their luck has not run out, as they'll enter Monday Night Football as a 3.5-point road favorite against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, who will be without quarterback Caleb Williams and are still unsure which backup signal-caller will start: Tyson Baget or Case Keenum.
My Eagles vs. Bears prediction and NFL picks expect points to be hard to come by when things get underway at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC.
Eagles vs Bears prediction: Under 42.5
The Philadelphia Eagles were slight 1.5-point dogs on this lookahead, but Caleb Williams' hamstring injury swung the line 4.5 points the other way. Over the last five years, backup quarterbacks have gone 50.7% ATS but much worse on the total, hitting the Over at a 46.6% rate. This total dropped from a lookahead of 44.5, but I still prefer the Under on Monday night.
Tyson Bagent was a full participant at practice Saturday after dealing with a concussion but still needs to pass some protocols to suit up, so third-string quarterback Case Keenum, who hasn't taken a snap since 2023, is still a possibility. This offense scored three points at home last week in the rain with Williams playing into the fourth quarter.
I'm not expecting either Chicago Bears backup to run Ben Johnson's offense at full strength, and it will surely be scaled back Monday night.
The Philadelphia offense is one to fade as well, as it's one of the worst early-down units in football. On first and second downs this season, they rank 30th in success rate, which is why their 53% third-down conversion rate, fourth in the NFL, might be unsustainable.
The Eagles are also missing starting tackle Fred Johnson, who joins guard Landon Dickerson on the shelf. Dallas Goedert is out, and the Eagles are down three tight ends while also missing Hollywood Brown.
The Bears' offense will be watered down, while the Eagles' offense remains unimpressive and is dealing with O-line issues. I hate to do it, but it's the Under 42.5 on Monday night for me, and I'd still play it at 41.5.
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Eagles vs Bears combo
Let's lean into the negative game script angle for the home side. If the Eagles figure out their early-down woes, they could control this game and force the Chicago backups to play from behind, which could make things worse for the Bears.
D'Andre Swift eats the negative game script role and is coming off a five-target game against the Vikings in a game Chicago was playing from behind.
Saquon Barkley is back to full health after dealing with a stinger, and this Chicago defense just gave up 105 rushing yards to Aaron Jones last week. Barkley is the seventh-most probable running back to score this week, which might be a little disrespectful after Jones' output and Chubba Hubbard scoring twice vs. the Bears in Week 2.
Eagles vs Bears combo
- Eagles -3.5
- Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown
- D'Andre Swift 15+ receiving yards
TOP PICK
Eagles vs Bears player prop: D'Andre Swift 15+ receiving yards
It's a backup dump-off kind of Monday with D'Andre Swift projected for 17.5 receiving yards after finishing with five targets last week, including one from Tyson Bagent in his 1.5 drives.
Swift is a very underrated pass-catching back with a 50-reception ceiling, and with plenty of third-and-longs potentially coming from the backup under center, Swift could see another busy day in the passing game, especially with negative game script.
Kyle Monangai was a full go at practice on Friday but has been dealing with a knee injury and has conceded a 65/35 running-back opportunity share to Swift, but the biggest takeaway from Swift's usage is that he dominates the snaps in negative game script, and that sounds like dump-offs to me.
The total is 10.5, but I would play the 15-yard line to 50%.
COVERS INTEL: D'Andre Swift had a 44% route share last week and was targeted on 21% of his routes in a game where Chicago never had the lead. His role over Kyle Monangai in the passing game expands with a negative game script.
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- Top picks: 2-4 -2.10 units
- Combos: 0-2, -2.00 units
Eagles vs Bears odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Eagles -3.5 | Bears +3.5
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (52%) | Under 42.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Eagles 62% | Bears 38%
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Eagles vs Bears weather
There are no weather concerns on Monday night with a 0% chance of rain, 77-degree temperatures, and just 5-mph winds.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Eagles vs Bears trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings. Find more NFL betting trends for Eagles vs. Bears.
How to watch Eagles vs Bears
| Location | Soldier Field, Chicago, Ill. |
| Date | Monday, Sept. 28, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN/ABC |
Eagles vs Bears latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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