Dean Kremer has been sharp since arriving in Minnesota, and the extra run with the Twins is the play in a low-scoring finale, per our MLB expert.
The Texas Rangers visit Target Field for the regular-season finale at 80-81, tied with Houston atop the American League West and needing a win to keep the division alive.
Texas sits at a 54% implied probability on the moneyline, with first pitch set for 3:10 p.m. ET.
Two struggling offenses shape my Rangers vs. Twins predictions, which are anchored by the Minnesota run line.
Read more in my MLB picks for Sunday, Sept. 27.
Who will win Rangers vs Twins today: Twins +1.5
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I’d play this to 62%. The Texas Rangers have the obvious motivation edge with the division on the line, but I don’t want to overpay for urgency.
Dean Kremer has found his form at the right time, allowing three earned runs over his last 16 2/3 innings, including six scoreless innings with eight strikeouts in his last outing.
Texas has also struggled against right-handed pitching lately, managing just a .613 OPS over the last 30 days, and Josh Jung is out with a fractured right hand.
If this becomes the low-scoring game I expect, getting 1.5 runs with the home team beats paying 54% for Texas to win outright.
COVERS INTEL: MacKenzie Gore has failed to finish five innings in three straight starts, and he pitched through back and shoulder spasms in mid-September.
Rangers vs Twins Over/Under pick: Under 8.5
This is my favorite of the three, and I’d play the Under to 56%.
Both offenses have been poor in the exact platoon matchups they draw Sunday. Texas owns a .613 OPS against righties over the last 30 days, while the Minnesota Twins sit at .612 against left-handers, and just .587 at home.
Kremer’s recent form helps considerably, and Gore has not finished five innings in three straight starts.
Rangers vs Twins home run prediction: Josh Bell
Josh Bell is the home run play at 16%, and I’d take him up to 18% for a quarter unit.
Gore carries a dramatic home run split, allowing 17 to right-handed hitters against only two to lefties. Bell is a switch hitter and will bat right-handed against him.
Bell has six homers against left-handed pitching this year while batting .273, and the arsenal fits. Gore throws his four-seam fastball nearly 47% of the time, and Bell has hit .301 and slugged .470 against four-seamers.
- ML/RL picks: 5-12, -7.73 units
- Over/Under picks: 11-6, +4.23 units
Rangers vs Twins weather
Conditions are mild and neutral at Target Field, with temperatures near 69 degrees and very little wind at first pitch.
Rangers vs Twins odds
- Moneyline: Rangers 54% | Twins 47%
- Run line: Rangers -1.5 | Twins +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Rangers vs Twins trend
The Twins are 85-76 against the spread this season, while Texas sits at 77-84. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Twins.
How to watch Rangers vs Twins and game info
| Location | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Sunday, September 27, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | RSN, Twins.TV |
| Rangers starting pitcher | MacKenzie Gore (8-11, 4.59 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher | Dean Kremer (4-5, 4.97 ERA) |
Rangers vs Twins latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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