It's the final day of the MLB regular season! And a sad day for those who have been grinding it out since March, but we still have so many MLB player props to get through today.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Sept. 27, including why Ben Rice and Spencer Jones are ready to pop off against Shane Baz.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Chicago White Sox |
F5 team total Over 2.5 | -115 |
 Spencer Jones |
1+ Hit | -144 |
| Ben Rice |
Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI | -107 |
Chicago White Sox F5 team total Over 2.5 (-115)
“Well, why wouldn’t we just take Colorado Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland over 2.5 earned runs?”
You want to pay an extra three cents, as that prop sits at -137? No.
The first-five team total Over on 2.5 is the play instead of the earned runs in this matchup. Freeland enters Sunday as the worst-rated pitcher on Batters-Box's current-season ratings, drawing the highest-rated lineup on the day. The Chicago White Sox boast six elite-rated hitters, with one more owning a strong rating.
Through 12 poorly rated games, Freeland has allowed 3-plus runs in 75% of those outings. He has also given up five-plus hits in each of those contests.
Just off the eye test alone, the White Sox stranded a boatload of players on the base paths last night. This team hasn't gone down easy all season long, and it should look to end the campaign on a high note. Additionally, the South Siders have been finding their footing over the last week, posting a 117 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .761 OPS.
Take this down to -125, or take Freeland over 5.5 hits allowed.
Home run lean: Chase Meidroth
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, CHSN
Spencer Jones to record 1+ hit (-144)
A guy I keep running back to for the price and the spots is New York Yankees future star Spencer Jones, who draws Baltimore Orioles right-hander Shane Baz this afternoon. Baz has been struggling in his last few outings, sporting a 6.06 ERA and 1.47 WHIP while allowing a 10.53% barrel rate.
Left-handed hitters have been Baz’s kryptonite. The last 30 he's faced have posted a .451 xBA, .684 xSLG, and .445 xwOBA, all while Baz is allowing a 30% ground-ball rate and 17.4% barrel rate.
Jones hasn't been the hottest bat in the Yankees' lineup, but he's making a ton of hard contact, so the outfielder is worthy of backing at $1.44 to record a hit. Plus, he owns a 16.7% ground-ball rate, 54.2% hard-hit rate, and 12.5% barrel rate over his last 10 games.
I would take this down to -150 or pivot to his over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI prop.
- Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, YES
Ben Rice Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI (-107)
We already know how poorly Baz has been against left-handed hitters, so why not back the hottest bat in this Yankees lineup? Ben Rice enters Sunday with the highest matchup rating in this game on Batters-Box, where he's surpassed this prop in nearly 55% of his 55 elite ratings this season.
Rice has been maintaining a .647 SLG, .412 ISO, and a 16.7% barrel rate over his last 10 games. On top of that, he owns a .333 BA, .762 SLG and .510 ISO in his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching while generating a 47% hard-hit rate and nearly a 12% barrel rate.
I was able to snag this at plus money. If you can find it, take it. However, I would not play this any lower than -110.
- Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, YES
- Prop picks: 532-1057, +2.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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