My Rays vs. Phillies prediction and MLB picks for Sunday, Sept. 27, back Tampa Bay as a 39% underdog.
After a 12-1 win on Saturday, the Rays look to keep the momentum rolling against Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05 p.m. ET.
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Who will win Rays vs Phillies today: Rays (39%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Simply for the value, and because of how lifeless the Philadelphia Phillies have been at the dish. Why would we force a bet on the Phillies, who own an 87 wRC+, 4.4% barrel rate, and .113 ISO over their last six games?
Oh, Zack Wheeler is on the mound? Okay? Nick Martinez is on the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he has been just as impressive, posting a 2.08 ERA and 0.75 WHIP while allowing just a 4% barrel rate over his last three starts.
I see no reason to back the Phillies, who haven't proven anything over their last few outings, especially at that price. The regression from the Rays' 12-run outburst could be a reason to back the hometown team, but they have never taken their foot off the gas this season.
COVERS INTEL: Seven Phillies hitters have a barrel rate below 5% over their last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, per Handigraphs.Rays vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 6.5
After the Rays hung 12 runs on the Phillies last night, there should be some regression this afternoon. Plus, with how poorly Philadelphia has been swinging the bat, runs may be at an all-time premium in this matchup.
Martinez owns a 2.08 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over his last three starts, while Wheeler has posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.
This should be a pitching duel.
Rays vs Phillies home run prediction: Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr. is easily my favorite look to go YA-YA in this matchup. He's not only one of the hottest hitters in this spot, but he is also making a high volume of quality contact.
In his last 30 at-bats against a right-handed pitcher, Mesa Jr. owns a .796 SLG and .461 ISO while generating a 56% hard-hit rate and a near-16% barrel rate.
- 2026 Season: 532-1057, +2.50 units
- Home Run picks: 134-460, +29.10 units
Rays vs Phillies weather
At first pitch, there is a slight chance of rain, with a 43% probability of precipitation. Temperatures should be in the low 60s.
Rays vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Rays 39% | Phillies 62%
- Run line: Rays +1.5 (60%) | Phillies -1.5 (40%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (40%) | Under 7.5 (60%)
Rays vs Phillies trend
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the moneyline in 33 of their last 50 games (+11.05 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Phillies.
How to watch Rays vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Sunday, September 27, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rays.TV, NBC Sports Philadelphia |
| Rays starting pitcher | Nick Martinez (15-5, 2.94 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Zack Wheeler (13-5, 3.06 ERA) |
Rays vs Phillies latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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