The New York Mets are priced as a heavy 64% moneyline favorite for today's game at Citi Field against the San Francisco Giants, with Zac Thornton on the hill.
With Thornton consistently inducing weak contact, my Giants vs. Mets predictions are eyeing New York to grab their third straight victory.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Sep. 5.
Who will win Giants vs Mets today: Mets (65%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Zac Thornton has been excellent for the New York Mets, giving them a strong starting point tonight. Across his last 11 1/3 innings, the rookie owns a 2.91 FIP while holding opponents to a 28.6% hard-hit rate and 2.9% barrel rate.
The San Francisco Giants are in respectable offensive form, but they have struggled badly against left-handers, posting an 85 wRC+ this season.
Anthony Molina has held his own lately with a 3.80 xERA over his last two outings, but he does not typically work deep.
That brings the Giants’ bullpen in early, and the Mets’ offense owns a 103 wRC+ recently after scoring 20 runs over its last two games.
New York has the edge.
Play up to 65%.
COVERS INTEL: Thornton has walked just 1.80 batters per nine innings at home this season, showing stronger command than his 2.53 road BB/9. That control should matter against a Giants lineup that is vulnerable vs lefties. 
Giants vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (55%)
I’m leaning Over 7.5 here, even with San Francisco’s issues against left-handed pitching.
Both offenses are sitting slightly above league average lately, and New York’s lineup has clearly woken up. The Mets also get an early look at Molina before San Francisco’s bullpen is forced into action.
Neither relief corps is falling apart, with New York posting a 3.87 FIP over its last 44 innings and San Francisco sitting in a similar range recently.
However, at 7.5, the number is low enough for one productive Mets night to carry this Over.
Play this pick up to 58%.
Giants vs Mets home run prediction: Juan Soto (27%)
Juan Soto is a great play today.
The slugger has posted loud numbers lately, smacking two homers in the last week with a 57.1% hard-hit rate and 24.4% barrel rate. On top of that, his average launch angle during that span sits at 24.4 degrees.
That has translated to an impressive 64.3% FB rate, and Molina has allowed two bombs in his last three appearances. The righty has also allowed 56% of his contact through the air in the last two weeks, and the Giants' pen isn't untouchable, either.
Play down to 28%.
- ML/RL bets: 65-74, -18.19 units
- Over/Under bets: 76-59, +5.56 units
Giants vs Mets weather
Weather at Citi Field looks clean for first pitch, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from 80°F to 76°F. Winds sit around 8–9 mph, and rain chances are minimal at 0–2%. No delay concerns, with mostly neutral hitting conditions.
Giants vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Giants 37% | Mets 64%
- Run line: Giants +1.5 (56%) | Mets -1.5 (45%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (54%) | Under 7.5 (45%)
Giants vs Mets trend
The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+7.00 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Mets.
How to watch Giants vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSBA, SNY |
| Giants starting pitcher | Anthony Molina (2-0, 3.77 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Zac Thornton (3-4, 2.93 ERA) |
Giants vs Mets latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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