There’s afternoon ball at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field on Friday with the Chicago Cubs hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers. Both teams are rolling along four-game winning streaks, but only the Dodgers are sitting at the top of World Series odds lists, while the Cubs are well down the board.
Despite a 3-0 start at Wrigley, the Cubs are a home underdog in the MLB odds, with the star-studded Dodgers blowing into the Windy City featuring multiple NL MVP candidates and prized righty Bobby Miller set toe the rubber against the North Siders.
Here are our free MLB picks and MLB player props for the Dodgers vs. Cubs clash on Friday, April 5.
Dodgers vs Cubs odds
Dodgers vs Cubs predictions
Chicago Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks didn’t have an answer for the Texas Rangers in his season debut Saturday, and a date with the Los Angeles Dodgers will be equally challenging for the soft-tossing righty. Hendricks lasted just 3.2 innings against Texas, and the Rangers squared him up to the tune of five runs on nine hits, which included two home runs, three barrels, and five hard hits.
Hendricks turned in a rebound 2023 showing with a 3.74 ERA and 8.5 HR/FB% across 137 frames, but his 4.42 xFIP was right in line with his 4.56 mark over the prior two years when he posted a 4.78 ERA and 14.8 HR/FB%.
Simply put, Hendricks’ best days are in the rearview, and he’ll continue to be susceptible when facing lineups loaded with the star power Texas and Los Angeles send to the dish.
The Dodgers have plated five or more in every game this season, and they’ve been dangerous against righties with a fifth-ranked 128 wRC+ and sixth-ranked 35.0 hard-hit percentage. I also value that the Chicago bullpen has been both busy and ineffective to start the year.
Cubs relievers have already thrown 28.1 innings through six games and posted a 22nd-ranked 4.82 xFIP with a league-high 44.2 hard-hit percentage.
Finally, with the wind forecasted to be blowing in from left-center field, I think we’re receiving a fair price on the Los Angeles team total. The breeze might keep a fly ball or two in the yard, but it won’t keep the Dodgers lineup in check, or prevent Hendricks from being squared up early and often Friday afternoon.
My best bet: Dodgers Over 4.5 runs (+107 at Pinnacle)
Dodgers vs Cubs same-game parlay
Dodgers Over 4.5 runs
Freddie Freeman 1+ RBI
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases
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It’s been business as usual to start the season for Freddie Freeman, and he’s in prime position to cash in Friday. The perennial MLB MVP odds candidate has teed off on righties with a .408 wOBA and 164 wRC+ since joining the Dodgers. Freeman is also perfectly positioned in the three-hole of the Los Angeles lineup, so he should have at least four plate appearances hitting behind fellow superstars Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani.
Additionally, there’s a significant edge available with the +375 bet365 odds because this same-game parlay is trading at +312 through FanDuel. The difference in prices checks out to a positive expected value of 15%.
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Dodgers vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This moneyline has moved in the Los Angeles direction, with bet365 moving the number from an opening -170 to -180 as of Friday morning.
- There is a huge talent gap between the two starting pitchers, so the Dodgers could continue to be steamed leading into the opening pitch.
- The total has climbed from 7.0 to 7.5 at most shops, and I’m not surprised because I’m not anticipating the wind being prohibitive enough to hold the Dodgers in check.
Trend to know
The total has gone Over the number in five of the past six Los Angeles games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Cubs
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Dodgers vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Friday, April 5, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, MARQ |
Starting pitchers
Bobby Miller (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Bobby Miller brings an above-average, five-pitch repertoire that includes a triple-digit fastball. He fanned 11 of 21 batters during his season debut against the St. Louis Cardinals while allowing just two hits across six innings.
Kyle Hendricks (0-1, 12.27 ERA): Hendricks lacks a swing-and-miss pitch mix, and while crafty and accurate, his tough outing against the powerful Texas lineup wasn’t surprising. His two whiffs across 72 pitches reinforce his shortcomings, and Henricks projects to continue struggling against top lineups.
