Tyler Glasnow doesn't need to pitch deep into this game, and my Dodgers vs Braves prop picks expect him to hit the showers before the sixth inning rolls around on Wednesday, Oct. 7.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a rested bullpen and aren't desperate to push their oft-injured right-hander.
My MLB picks are also eyeing Tyler Mahle and Freddie Freeman in Game 4 of the NLDS, with first pitch coming at 6 p.m. ET tonight on FS1.
Meanwhile, Neil Parker is backing L.A. to advance to the NLCS in his Dodgers vs. Braves predictions.
Best Dodgers vs Braves props
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| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Tyler Glasnow u15.5 outs |
57% |
 Tyler Mahle o13.5 outs |
56% |
| Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases |
48% |
Prop pick #1: Tyler Glasnow Under 15.5 outs
Market liquidity is volatile, and I'd only play this to 62%.
On one hand, Tyler Glasnow is rested as he hasn't pitched yet in the postseason. On the other hand, expecting any Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher not named Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Tarik Skubal to go deeper than five innings in this day and age is a big — and largely unnecessary — ask.
Glasnow did routinely pitch deep into his starts when healthy this season, even wrapping the season with consecutive 6-plus-inning performances. But he also missed a ton of time due to a lingering back injury, limiting him to just 74 total innings.
With the Dodgers a win away from returning to the NLCS, I expect Dave Roberts to have a quick trigger, especially after Yamamoto tossed seven outstanding innings just last night. The bullpen is rested, and Skubal is likely next man up if the series goes to a Game 5. There's no reason to force Glasnow to thread the needle tonight.
Prop pick #2: Tyler Mahle Over 13.5 outs
Play to 59%.
While you could apply the above logic to Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Tyler Mahle, this line is too low. The Braves have burned through so many relievers this postseason, and ace Chris Sale only managed five frames before getting the hook on Tuesday.
Obviously, if the Dodgers go ballistic right away, this will go down in flames, but Mahle only needs to pitch four innings for this to clear. He went seven strong in his last start against the Phillies on Sept. 30, so he has had plenty of rest.
And even if he's seemed like a ticking time bomb since arriving in Atlanta, he has pitched at least five innings in all 10 of his outings with the Braves. Hell, he cleared 13.5 outs in every outing with San Francisco, too.
Yes, there's more on the line here than in any of those other starts except maybe his last one, but the Braves have been consistently rewarded for trusting Mahle. Four innings is more than manageable in this context.
Prop pick #3: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases
Happily take Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases to 52%.
Getting plus money on Freeman, who is simply built for playoff baseball, is a gift. He's slashing .364/.462/.909 with two home runs in 13 plate appearances in this series.
And while I like Mahle to clear his outs prop, he isn't an overpowering arm, and Freeman owns him. The first baseman is 8-for-19 with a home run and six RBI in his career against the right-hander.
Handedness hasn't really mattered, either. Freeman certainly performs better against righties, but he wasn't a black hole vs. left-handers this season, so I'm not worried if Atlanta goes for a leverage arm in the middle-to-late innings.
Besides, Freeman took Sale deep yesterday, and no lefty in the Braves' bullpen is better than him.
Dustin Saracini goes a step further and takes Freeman to go yard again today in his MLB home run picks.
- ML/RL: 10-5, +6.17 units
- O/U: 7-8, -2.08 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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