The AL and NL Division Series roll on with four games on today's schedule, and our MLB expert picks cover all of them.
We're eyeing the Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Chicago White Sox to advance, while the Milwaukee Brewers offense will rebound after some unfortunate luck on Tuesday night.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: CLE/CHW o7.5 |
54% |
 Jon Metler: TB ML |
41% |
 Neil Parker: LAD ML |
58% |
 Joe Osborne: MIL TT o3.5 |
52% |
 Dustin Saracini: CHW ML |
52% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Guardians vs White Sox Over 7.5
Price: 54¢ at Polymarket
I got this at 54%, with a fair probability of 58.5% and a projection of 9.3 runs.
First, the hitting weather in Chicago is great for October, with temperatures near 80 degrees and 8-mph winds blowing out.
Both sides will go with an opener, and the Cleveland Guardians will have Joey Cantillo handle the bulk innings. Cantillo was on a heater before the postseason but has yet to pitch, and the lefty had some ugly stretches this year before being moved into a piggyback role.
The Guardians should do more damage than they have so far in the series after hitting just .115 and getting Sean Newcomb and whatever else after him. The Cleveland bats are primed for more hits, and the Chicago White Sox should touch the four-run mark today.
Nick Galaida also likes the Over and is favoring a Chicago victory in his Guardians vs. White Sox predictions.
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- How to watch: TBS
Jon Metler's expert pick: Rays moneyline
Price: 41¢ at Polymarket
Are we really trading the Tampa Bay Rays at 41% in this matchup? I price them closer to 47%, giving us a significant edge to exploit.
The New York Yankees are likely to stack their lineup with eight left-handed bats against Nick Martinez, but I don’t expect the Rays to let Martinez go deep enough to face this lineup a third time.
From the middle innings through the end of the game, Tampa Bay can create a platoon advantage by deploying its left-handed relievers against a Yankees lineup specifically built to attack the veteran right-hander.
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- How to watch: TBS
Neil Parker's expert pick: Dodgers moneyline
Price: 58¢ at Polymarket
Give me the Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline up to 61%.
The Los Angeles lineup is positioned to break out at the dish after going 0-for-13 with runners in scoring position, and the Atlanta Braves pitching staff is sporting an unsustainable 99% stand rate through the first three games of the series.
Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow's 4.46 ERA across his final six regular-season starts is way above his underlying 3.11 xERA and 2.88 xFIP, and Los Angeles posted a third-ranked xwOBA while pacing the majors in squared-up contact rate against righties in the second half.
The Braves ranked 12th and 23rd, respectively, in those categories.
Neil expands on this pick with a combo and a Teoscar Hernandez home run prop in his Braves vs. Dodgers predictions.
- Time: 6 p.m. ET
- How to watch: FS1
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Brewers team total Over 3.5
Price: 52¢ at Polymarket
Let’s back the Milwaukee Brewers to make some noise against a shaky Walker Buehler, who posted an unimpressive 4.63 ERA this season.
Milwaukee piled up 11 hits and four walks in its Game 3 loss, yet somehow turned that traffic into just three runs. This lineup entered October swinging well, posting a .784 OPS in September, and another busy night on the bases wouldn’t surprise me.
At 52% on Polymarket, I’ll happily back the Brewers to clear their 3.5 team total.
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: FS1
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: White Sox moneyline
Price: 52¢ at Polymarket
I'd play this up to 55% with the series shifting to Chicago for the first time in the playoffs and the White Sox one win away from moving on to the ALCS. Rate Field, where the Sox own a 48-33 record this year, will be absolutely electric.
It'll be a battle of the openers in Game 3. Newcomb leads the charge for Chicago, and he's limited the Guardians to a .202 xBA and .289 xwOBA in a healthy 49 plate appearances. We'll take that. The Guardians counter with Daniel Espino, who's only logged 14 major-league innings this season.
The White Sox bullpen has been elite in the playoffs (1.04 ERA), and I'll lean Chicago in the series clincher as it looks to stay perfect in the postseason.
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- How to watch: TBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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