The Baltimore Orioles visit the New York Yankees for the final game of the regular season, with New York priced as a slight 55% favorite as I make my Orioles vs. Yankees predictions.
Shane Baz faces Elmer Rodriguez in a matchup between a starter with an established workload and a young Yankees arm carrying a 5.40 ERA through only 26 2/3 innings. With little left to gain, workload and lineup decisions matter more than motivation in this finale.
My MLB picks for Sept. 27 give New York the edge while also targeting a lower-scoring game in the rain-threatened finale.
Who will win Orioles vs Yankees today: Orioles
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The starting-pitching edge belongs to the Birds. Shane Baz has been carrying a heavy workload while posting a 4.11 ERA with a 4.27 xERA, giving the Orioles the more established starter in a finale when arm strain should matter.
Elmer Rodriguez has been struggling through his brief major-league sample, recording a 5.40 ERA, 5.58 xERA, and 1.58 WHIP across 26 2/3 innings. His sinker and four-seamer have allowed a .431 xSLG and .498 xSLG, giving the Orioles a clear path to hard contact.
Boasting a more talented lineup still means the Yankees should be favored, but this is a touch too much. With motivation muted and possible rest affecting the New York Yankees, the Orioles offer the better side at plus money.
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Orioles vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 7.5
Play Under 7.5 to 54%.
This is not a normal regular-season game, which makes workload and lineup decisions more important than recent scoring trends. Baz has thrown just over 179 innings this year, and he's posted good enough barrel numbers to suggest the hurler can induce weak contact against a team likely just going through the motions.
Rodriguez is the main concern after posting a 5.40 ERA and 5.58 xERA across just 26 2/3 innings. However, his 47% groundball rate and 8.5% barrel rate provide some support for a controlled outing if his command holds. Rain and gusty winds are expected, adding another reason to expect a choppy, lower-efficiency offensive environment. I project 7.1 total runs.
Orioles vs Yankees home run prediction: Pete Alonso
We'll go with Big Pete.
He's hit 43 dingers with an .885 OPS this season, and his Statcast profile includes strong hard-hit numbers across the board. Alonso has also posted a .554 xSLG against sinkers this season, which is relevant against Rodríguez’s primary pitch.
The final game of the campaign creates some lineup uncertainty. But if Alonso receives his normal at-bats, his current power profile gives him the best chance to leave the yard.
- ML/RL picks: 55-49, +11.25 units
- Over/Under picks: 60-42, +20.30 units
Orioles vs Yankees weather
Rain and gusty winds are forecast around first pitch in New York, with temperatures near 70 degrees. MLB moved the game to 1:05 p.m. ET because of the weather threat later in the afternoon. The forecast still favors a slower, less efficient offensive game.
Orioles vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Orioles 47% | Yankees 53%
- Run line: Orioles +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Orioles vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the moneyline in 12 of their last 16 home games (+7.15 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees.
How to watch Orioles vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MASN, YES |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Shane Baz (6-15, 4.11 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Elmer Rodriguez (0-3, 5.40 ERA) |
Orioles vs Yankees latest injuries
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