The Arizona Diamondbacks need to win and get some help to sneak into the playoffs and steal the final Wild Card spot from the Philadelphia Phillies.
I'm skeptical things go Arizona's way elsewhere, but my Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction and MLB picks backing them to convert a big pitching advantage into a win.
Who will win Diamondbacks vs Padres today: Diamondbacks moneyline
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The Arizona Diamondbacks must win this game, and I like them up to 59%. They’re catching a break with Randy Vasquez projected to start in place of Michael King.
Vasquez owns a serviceable 4.01 ERA but sits in the fourth percentile in xERA. He's very hittable, and the Diamondbacks don’t need much help. They're sixth in average and seventh in SLG vs. right-handed pitching this month.
Michael Soroka sits in the 90th percentile in pitching run value and will pose a big challenge for a San Diego Padres lineup looking ahead to the playoffs.
COVERS INTEL: Michael Soroka's elite 5.9 BB% will help him keep runners off the bases and slow a Padres team that sits seventh in walks vs. RHP.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 8.5
I’m on the Under to 57%.
The Diamondbacks are stringing together hits nicely but rank 23rd in homers this season. They’re generally not a team that runs up the score with quick-strike offense.
More importantly, the Padres are unlikely to contribute much. Soroka limits hard contact and walks effectively, making him a tough arm to score on at the best of times.
The Diamondbacks will leave no stone unturned with their bullpen in an effort to slam the door shut and prevent runs. It’s also very possible some Padres bats are rested or pulled from the game early.
Diamondbacks vs Padres home run prediction: Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll leads all Diamondbacks players in ISO (.256) and barrel rate (13.8%) against Vasquez’ most-used pitchers.
Given that, it should be no surprise Carroll has a strong track record facing the righty. Carroll has hit safely in five of 15 at-bats and, more notably, generated nine hard-hit balls along the way.
He's consistently making powerful contact facing Vasquez, and the Padres are unlikely to throw their best relievers out there with a playoff game coming Tuesday. Carroll will be a threat for the entirety of this contest.
- ML/RL picks: 127-103, -0.21 units
- Over/Under picks: 120-104-6, +1.92 units
Diamondbacks vs Padres weather
Temperatures should sit in the mid-70s with winds blowing left to right. Neutral impacts on hitting.
Diamondbacks vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks 57% | Padres 44%
- Run line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (43%) | Padres +1.5 (59%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (46%) | Under 8.5 (55%)
Diamondbacks vs Padres trend
The Diamondbacks have cashed the Under in 32 of their last 50 road games for +12.50 units and a 23% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Padres.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Sunday, September 27, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Dbacks.TV, Padres.TV |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Michael Soroka (9-5, 3.31 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Randy Vasquez (10-6, 4.01 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Padres latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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