The Chicago Cubs are a sizable road favorite over the Miami Marlins ahead of the 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch at loanDepot Park on Friday, Sept. 4.
My top Cubs vs. Marlins predictions and MLB picks are calling for Chicago to win convincingly in the series opener.
Who will win Cubs vs Marlins today: Cubs -1.5 run line (43.7%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The Chicago Cubs have an advantage at the plate and on the mound over the Miami Marlins tonight.
Chicago ranks second in xwOBA and first is ISO across the past 30 days, while Miami respectively checks in ranked 27th and 25th. The Cubs also rank fourth in wOBA against righties for the season, and the Marlins are 20th in the metric against lefties.
Similarly, while Cubs starter Shota Imanaga has had plenty of peaks and valleys this season, his 3.89 xERA and 3.82 xFIP across his past 11 starts also reinforce the edge on the mound.
Marlins starter Janson Junk sports a ho-hum 4.28 xERA and 4.72 xFIP over his past seven starts, after all.
It all adds up to Chicago pulling away on the scoreboard tonight.
COVERS INTEL: Miami Marlins righty Janson Junk has the second-lowest whiff percentage and 11th-lowest strikeout percentage among the 116 pitchers with at least 100 innings.
Cubs vs Marlins Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (55.8%)
In addition to the highlighted offensive struggles of the Marlins, they’ve played to the Under in 26 of their last 40 home games (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI).
This is also a potential letdown spot for the Cubs.
Chicago just split a key, four-game divisional series with the Milwaukee Brewers, and the Cubbies were held to just 11 runs over the final three games of the set.
Cubs vs Marlins home run prediction: Michael Busch (14.8%)
There’s been a considerable dip in Cubs first baseman Michael Busch’s ISO against righties this season. He posted a rock-solid .245 mark across the past two seasons but is all the way down to a .141 ISO in 2026. So, with Junk allowing a healthy 16.7 blast-contact percentage at home, this is a long number for Busch to cash in on statistical correction and leave the yard tonight.
- ML/RL bets: 52-23, 31.2 units
- Over/Under bets: 25-22, +1.63 units
Cubs vs Marlins weather
The retractable roof at loanDepot Park is expected to be closed for tonight’s game, but the official decision won’t be announced until a few hours before the game on the @loanDepotpark X feed.
Cubs vs Marlins odds
- Moneyline: Cubs 60% | Marlins 43.5%
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 (47.6%) | Marlins +1.5 (56.5%)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (52.4%) | Under 8 (52.4%)
Cubs vs Marlins trend
The Chicago Cubs have covered the run line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+7.65 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Marlins.
How to watch Cubs vs Marlins and game info
| Location | loanDepot Park, Miami, Fla. |
| Date | Friday, Sept. 4, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marquee, Marlins.TV |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Shota Imanaga (8-10, 4.01 ERA) |
| Marlins starting pitcher | Janson Junk (6-8, 4.11 ERA) |
Cubs vs Marlins latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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