The Chicago Cubs blew the doors off the Seattle Mariners in their series finale, and I like them to pick up where they left off against Merrill Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight.
Let's break it all down with my Cubs vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 24.
Who will win Cubs vs Diamondbacks today: Chicago Cubs (-140)
Kevin Gausman throws a heavy diet of fastballs and splitters, and the Arizona Diamondbacks have only hit .222 against that combination.
While they have improved of late, Arizona still ranks Bottom-5 in OBP and average vs. righties. Gausman owns a solid 3.41 ERA over five starts against teams that fit the criteria.
Merrill Kelly has a tougher matchup against the Chicago Cubs. They sit near the top of the league in most major offensive categories, and enter in strong form. Only the Red Sox have posted a higher ISO vs. RHP in August.
Take Chicago to -155.
COVERS INTEL: Kelly ranks in the first percentile in xERA, and should be completely overmatched facing the league's most productive offense.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-126)
Kelly and powerful offenses go together like oil and water. Kelly has posted a 7.30 ERA and allowed 2.43 home runs per nine innings over seven starts vs. Top-10 teams in ISO.
That includes a meeting with the Cubs back in May, where Kelly conceded six runs and eight hits in just 4 1/3 innings of work. This is a great spot for the Cubs offense.
Gausman sits in the 34th percentile in xBA, and the Diamondbacks are up to 15th in batting average vs. righties this month. They should chip in as well.
Play the Over to -135.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+280)
Pete Crow-Armstrong is on a heater, and this is the perfect spot for it to continue.
Kelly has allowed a .248 ISO and 1.68 HR/9 to left-handed bats, both drastically worse than his outputs against righties.
His pitch mix also falls right into PCA’s wheelhouse. PCA has posted ISOs of .312 and .548 against changeups and fastballs the past 30 games. Those happen to be Kelly’s two most prominent pitches against lefties.
Play to +257.
- ML/RL bets: 88-80, -10.15 units
- Over/Under bets: 86-76-6, -1.13 units
Cubs vs Diamondbacks weather
Game will be played in a dome.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks odds
- Moneyline: Cubs -140 | Diamondbacks +120
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+110) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-110) | Under 9.0 (-110)
Cubs vs Diamondbacks trend
Chicago has won 26 of their last 40 away games (+10.35 units, 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Cubs vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Monday, August 24, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MARQ, DBacks.TV |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (6-11, 4.58 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Merrill Kelly (8-11, 5.37 ERA) |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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