With the Milwaukee Brewers awaiting, the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians meet for Game 4 of the ALCS tonight, weather permitting, at Progressive Field.
Our Rays vs. Guardians expert picks expect volume from Tampa Bay starting pitcher Nick Martinez, though Cleveland may come away with a massive ALCS advantage on Friday, Oct. 16.
Rays vs Guardians expert picks for Game 4
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: Nick Martinez o11.5 outs |
57% |
 Jon Metler: CLE ML |
51% |
 Joe Osborne: Jose Ramirez o1.5 H+R+RBI |
47% |
 Neil Parker: Nick Martinez o3.5 hits |
47% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Nick Martinez Over 11.5 outs
Price: 57¢ at Polymarket
Kevin Cash clearly doesn't trust his middle relievers, letting Griffin Jax throw 67 pitches in Game 3 despite working out of the bullpen in the ALDS.
Many will look at Nick Martinez's last playoff box score and see just 11 outs on 63 pitches, but he exited after taking a 98-mph liner off his back. His leash is longer than that outing suggests, and he averaged between 80 and 90 pitches per start during the regular season.
I'm backing Martinez to record at least 12 outs with my MLB picks. This prop has a fair probability of 63%.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Guardians moneyline
Price: 51¢ at Polymarket
I'm backing the Cleveland Guardians to beat the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 4 and take a 3-1 lead in the ALCS.
Cleveland is trading at 51% on the moneyline, but I make the Guardians a 54% favorite, giving us an edge at the current price.
Martinez depends on getting hitters to chase his changeup outside the strike zone, but that approach could be tough to execute against Cleveland. The Guardians can stack their lineup with eight left-handed hitters, including disciplined bats near the top who are less likely to chase.
Left-handed hitters also get a slightly longer look at the spin on Martinez's changeup, helping them recognize the pitch, lay off offerings outside the zone, and force him to challenge them in the strike zone
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Price: 47¢ at Polymarket
Big players make big plays in big games, and Jose Ramirez is delivering for Cleveland.
He has a 1.124 OPS through eight playoff games, piling up 11 hits, eight runs and eight RBI. He’s recorded at least two combined hits, runs and RBI in five of his last six games.
He should also feel comfortable at home, where he posted a .748 OPS this season compared to .632 on the road. At 47%, I’m going back to the well and backing Ramirez again.
Neil Parker also likes Ramirez's chances at providing offense as one of his favorite Rays vs. Guardians props.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Nick Martinez Over 3.5 hits allowed
Price: 56¢ at Polymarket
Rays righty Nick Martinez pitches to contact, so he’ll either go Over the number in a shortened outing or pitch deep enough into Game 4 for the Cleveland Guardians to pick up four or more hits. The Guardians have the highest wOBA in the postseason against right-handed pitchers, after all.
Martinez posted a career-low 15.1% strikeout rate alongside a minuscule 3.6% walk rate, while opposing hitters made contact on 90.7% of his pitches in the strike zone. He's also allowed four or more hits in each of his last four starts dating back to the regular season, so this prop is in play up to 51%.
How to watch Rays vs Guardians Game 4
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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