With stormy weather swirling around Progressive Field, my Rays vs. Guardians predictions back the visitors, assuming the game goes ahead as planned tonight.
The Tampa Bay Rays are rolling out veteran hurler Nick Martinez, while the Cleveland Guardians are opting for Shawn Armstrong in a likely bullpen game to preserve their top arms.
This pitching advantage gives us all we need in our MLB picks for Game 4 of the ALCS, with first pitch scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on TBS.
TOP PICK
Rays vs Guardians prediction: Rays moneyline
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The Tampa Bay Rays are slight favorites over the Cleveland Guardians, but I’d stick with them through 55%.
Cleveland leads the series 2-1 and can keep things from going back to Tampa if it wins twice at home. However, the Guardians seem to be counting their chickens a bit when it comes to their pitching strategy.
It appears that Cleveland plans to have co-aces Parker Messick and Gavin Williams, who have started six of the Guardians’ eight postseason games, ready to go on full rest in Games 6 and 7, or to start the World Series if they wrap things up by Game 5.
That means lots of bullpen and spot-starter work in Games 4 and 5 (Shawn Armstrong will open tonight), a plan muddled further by the prospect of bad weather, with rain in the forecast for most of today.
Assuming the game is played, Tampa will have Nick Martinez on the mound, giving them a massive starting-pitching advantage in Game 4.
COVERS INTEL: Martinez has dominated Cleveland this season, allowing Guardians batters to post a .159/.178/.182 slash line against him in two starts, which translates to an OPS+ of 4 (96% below league average). For his career, Martinez is .161/.212/.258 at Progressive Field for an OPS+ of 28. Who will win Rays vs Guardians?
Rays: Batters have seen relievers a couple of times, and the Rays are dangerous when they get familiar with a pitcher. Team OPS+ goes from 98 the first time facing a reliever to 139 the second time and 173 the third.
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Rays vs Guardians combo
The Guardians will mix and match pitchers for the next two games, which is dangerous against a Rays lineup that is looking for a spark.
None of the Tampa Bay regulars have a postseason OPS over .667, and the Tampa lineup won't be in a group slump forever. A few good at-bats against familiar Cleveland relievers could open the floodgates.
Both teams will also be motivated to score early, with the prospect of mounting a comeback in steady, cold rain looming if they don’t. Aggressive baserunning and bunting to move up and scratch across an early run will likely follow anyone getting on base early.
Rays vs Guardians combo
- Rays moneyline (51%)
- Over 6.5 runs (53%)
- Run in the first inning (44%)
Rays vs Guardians home run prediction: Junior Caminero
The Rays' home-run leader has hits in four of his five postseason games this year, including two extra-base knocks.
Junior Caminero is one Tampa batter primed for an explosion, and he has a career OPS over .900 against Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, and Tanner Bibee, all likely candidates to face him in Game 4.
He struck out four times last game, which has only happened once before. He has homered after a 3-plus strikeout game three times, so look for him to bounce back hard after an embarrassing night.
Rays vs Guardians player prop: Chase DeLauter over 1.5 total bases
Chase DeLauter has had a breakout postseason, hitting in six of the eight games and going 4-for-10 against the Rays with three extra-base hits.
He has an .867 postseason OPS, a 151 OPS+ over the last month, and a 140 OPS+ since the All-Star break. The rookie is hitting .333 against Martinez and has a 1.000 OPS and 202 OPS+ against the Rays this season.
- Top picks: 89-66, +20.23 units
- Combos: 0-3, +0.0 units
Rays vs Guardians weather
This might be the story of the series. Thursday's game was moved from night to early afternoon to get ahead of the weather, and tonight's game will likely be played after all-day rain, with more showers expected throughout the evening. Delays are possible, and so is a straight-up postponement. It will affect lineups, pitching plans, and early strategy.
Rays vs Guardians odds
- Moneyline: Rays 51% | Guardians 50%
- Run line: Rays -1.5 (36%) | Guardians +1.5 (65%)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 53% | Under 6.5 (48%)
Rays vs Guardians trend
The Over is 4-0 in the Rays' last four after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Guardians.
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How to watch Rays vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio |
| Date | Friday, October 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Rays starting pitcher | Nick Martinez (15-6, 3.10 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Shawn Armstrong (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Rays vs Guardians latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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