The Cleveland Guardians bullpen game opens the door for Junior Caminero, while two Guardians left-handed bats carry real value against Nick Martinez.
An offensive explosion could be near as the Guardians — up 2-1 in the series — take on the Tampa Bay Rays in a bullpen game. I've pinpointed my best Rays vs. Guardians home run predictions for Game 4 of the ALCS at 6 p.m. ET from Progressive Field.
I'm backing Junior Caminero, Chase DeLauter, and Nathaniel Lowe in this contest. Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, Oct. 16.
Best Rays vs Guardians home run picks
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Junior Caminero
Chase DeLauter
Rays home run pick: Junior Caminero
Play up to 17%.
Cleveland's bullpen game works in Junior Caminero's favor at 14%. He faces a rotating cast instead of one difficult platoon matchup, and southpaw Joey Cantillo's bulk innings will meet Caminero’s .916 OPS against left-handed pitching.
It’s no better for the Guards if righties Tanner Bibee and Slade Cecconi pitch afterward. Caminero slugged .536 against right-handers with 34 of his 42 homers off them, and he bats third, so he gets four at-bats.
The underlying power is elite. Caminero finished with a 13.1% barrel rate, and he punished four-seamers with a .641 slugging mark and a 62.2% hard-hit rate against four-seamers. He also covers sinkers well (.575 SLG), so Guardians pitchers won’t get heaters by him.
Guardians home run pick: Chase DeLauter
Play up to 12%.
Chase DeLauter is priced far better than Cleveland's shorter home run options against Nick Martinez. The left-hander launched 13 of his 16 regular-season homers off right-handed pitching while slugging .450 in those matchups, which is exactly what Martinez gives him.
He also held his strikeout rate to 12.1% against righties, so the contact comes cheap. DeLauter is also hitting .300 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, and an .867 OPS through 30 playoff at-bats.
Martinez has allowed 13 home runs against lefties this season, compared with nine against righties.
The split hands DeLauter a cleaner power matchup than Jo Adell or Jose Ramirez, both of whom hit less hard against righties this season.
Long-shot home run pick: Nathaniel Lowe
Nathan Lowe is the long shot worth taking at 6%. All 17 of his home runs this season came against right-handed pitching, where he slugged .485, and Martinez is a righty.
Lowe’s home splits sharpen the case: 12 of those 17 homers came at Progressive Field, where he hit .497.
Martinez's platoon profile points the same way. Left-handed hitters accounted for 13 of the 22 home runs he allowed this season.
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Rays vs Guardians home run combo
The three-leg combo attacks both Game 4 pitching plans without leaning on the shortest prices. Caminero gets several looks at Cleveland's bullpen and owns the power profile to handle either handedness.
DeLauter and Lowe attack Martinez from the left side, where the Tampa Bay Rays right-hander has surrendered most of his home run damage this season. DeLauter brings a stronger contact profile, and Lowe offers long-shot value at 6%. The three legs combine at 382x.
- HR picks: 0-0, +0.0 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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