Game 4 of the American League Championship Series is a pick 'em ahead of the 8 p.m. ET first pitch between the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on Friday, Oct. 16.
Here’s a trio of Rays vs. Guardians prop picks with Cleveland star Jose Ramirez headlining my betting card of MLB picks tonight.
Best Rays vs Guardians props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Nick Martinez Over 3.5 hits allowed |
47% |
 Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI |
48% |
| Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI |
45% |
Prop pick #1: Nick Martinez Over 3.5 hits allowed
Simply put, Tampa Bay Rays righty Nick Martinez pitches to contact, so he’ll either clear this total in a shortened outing or pitch deep enough into Game 4 to allow the Cleveland Guardians to collect four or more hits.
Martinez posted a career-low 15.1% strikeout rate alongside a minuscule 3.6% walk rate, while opposing hitters made contact on 90.7% of his pitches in the strike zone.
He's allowed four or more hits in each of his last four starts dating back to the regular season. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians have posted the highest wOBA in the postseason against right-handed pitchers, along with the third-ranked .254 batting average.
This Martinez prop is in play up to 51%.
Prop pick #2: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Cleveland star Jose Ramirez has been a force this postseason, posting a .470 wOBA while racking up eight runs and eight RBI during an 11-for-30 heater at the dish. His elite 38.9% squared-up contact rate is also largely in line with the 34.4% mark he posted across the past three regular seasons.
I also value the six-time Silver Slugger hitting in the heart of the lineup, especially given the Guardians' strong start to the postseason against righties.
I’d recommend this Over up to 50%.
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Prop pick #3: Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Tampa Bay first baseman Jonathan Aranda is 0-for-10 through the first three games of the series despite a 62.5% hard-hit rate. He’s also posted an unsustainably low .167 BABIP alongside an eye-popping 48.6% squared-up contact rate this postseason.
With a rock-solid .360 wOBA, .827 OPS, and 48.9% hard-hit rate across 1,090 regular-season plate appearances over the past two years, Aranda looks poised for a slump-busting night at the plate in Game 4.
I recommend this Aranda Over up to 51%.
- Prop picks: 13-9, +3.41 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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