The Milwaukee Brewers were surging with a five-game win streak before having it snapped by the Philadelphia Phillies in the opening game of their three-game set on Monday night, who are now tied for baseball's best record.
Does our Brewers vs. Phillies predictions have Milwaukee getting back to their winning ways?
Continue reading for free MLB picks for Tuesday, June 4th.
Brewers vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Cristopher Sanchez over 16.5 outs recorded (-127 at BetRivers)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Cristopher Sanchez will take the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight and he has been able to go consistently long (just two starts with less than five innings pitched) while limiting runs (just one start with more than three earned runs allowed).
He achieves this by relying heavily on a sinker (47% usage rate) that averages 94 MPH, a mark that is noticeably above the 91 MPH league average. As a result, he gets batters to ground out (97th percentile) or chase outside of the zone (92nd percentile chase rate) regularly, and he infrequently gets barreled up (66 percentile).
His line of 16.5 outs recorded is a bit underpriced, as he has failed to hit that mark just once across his five starts in May — finishing the month with a 2.03 ERA and coming within one out of record four quality starts in those five outings.
Add on to the fact that the Milwaukee Brewers have been much worse against left-handed pitchers (18th in OBP, 17th in wRC+, ninth-highest strikeout rate) than they have been against righties (1st, 3rd, and league average) this year.
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Brewers vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Sanchez Over 5.5 strikeouts
Yelich Under 0.5 hits
Phillies moneyline
Building from the aforementioned strikeout rate point above, Sanchez's line of 5.5 tonight may be a tad short.
And while the lefty has hit six or more strikeouts just five times across his eleven starts this season, he has hit it in four of his five home starts, and the one time he missed the mark it was by one strikeout.
To build off of that, it may be unwise to fade a player that is batting 3.13 on the season but Christian Yelich has started the month of June a tad slow, logging just two hits across his first 11 at-bats of the young month. He is also just 1-for-4 against Sanchez while striking out twice.
And in a Phillies win (they have won in four of Sanchez's last five starts) you have a realistic recipe for a decently long same-game parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Phillies odds
Brewers vs Phillies live odds
Brewers vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 (-140) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+115)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +146 | Philadelphia -159
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Brewers vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- Philadelphia is not only tied for the best record in baseball, they possess the second-best runline record as a home team this year at 20-14 (58.8%). They have covered the -1.5 runline in four of their last five games.
- Milwaukee is the league's best team on Overs this year at 34-23-3 (59.7%) but have been below league average on the road at 15-16-1 (48.4%).
- At home, the Phillies have played just 16-15-3 (51.6%) to the Over and have failed to go Over the total in their last six games overall.
- Philadelphia has also gone 8-4 to the Under in games with a total of 8.5 or more - tonight's total currently sits at 9.
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Brewers vs Phillies trend
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 45 games (+16.85 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Phillies
Brewers vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSWI, NBCSP |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Jared Koenig (5-1, 2.05 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Cristopher Sanchez (3-3, 2.83 ERA) |
Brewers vs Phillies latest injuries
Brewers vs Phillies weather
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