We have a busy betting slate in Major League Baseball tonight, including the series opener between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Twins.
Addison Barger has been on a tear with the bat recently, and my Blue Jays predictions expect his scorching hot pace to continue tonight in a matchup that should favor the young Jays hitter.
Find out why with my free MLB picks for this June 6 matchup.
Blue Jays predictions for June 6
- Best bet
Addison Barger o1.5 total bases
(+105 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Barger o1.5 total bases
Bichette o1.5 total bases
Ober u4.5 strikeouts
(+400 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: The bases add up for Addison
Addison Barger Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at BetVictor)
The hottest bats in baseball belong to the Toronto Blue Jays after two impressive series wins over the Athletics and Phillies. As a group, Toronto has scored an MLB-best 53 runs over their last seven games with 14 home runs and a .928 OPS.
I’m banking on that offensive success to roll into this Minnesota Twins series after Minnesota just allowed the Athletics to put up a 14-spot on them.
The Twins are sending right-hander Bailey Ober to the mound. Ober’s underlying metrics don't look as rosy as his basic stats. Ober has a 4-1 record with a 3.48 ERA, a .279 batting average against, and an OPS allowed of .758.
However, according to Baseball Savant, Ober has an expected ERA of 3.82, which ranks in the 49th percentile, while his expected batting average ranks in the 32nd percentile. Additionally, he allows a lot of contact with a 70% air-ball rate and a groundball percentage in the 6th percentile in baseball.
That should allow some of the Jays’ better contact hitters to do some damage against Ober. He also relies on a high chase rate for his success.
The Blue Jays batter I believe that can match up well against Ober is Addison Barger, who has a high contact rate, the fourth-lowest chase percentage on the Jays, and can hit the ball harder than anyone on the team.
Additionally, Barger has had far more success hitting righties than lefties, especially when it comes to power, with 15 of his 17 extra base hits being against RHP, for a slug rate of .523.
His underlying metrics are even more impressive, as his expected batting average this year is in the 90th percentile across all of baseball at .295, while being in the top 2% in average exit velocity (94.6mph); which means Barger is hitting the ball more frequently and is making solid contact when doing so.
Marrying these two aspects of the game together has allowed Barger’s power to manifest at the major league level this season, especially over the past few weeks.
The Jays slugger is batting .327 over his last 15 games with four homers and eight extra base hits. Barger has also exceeded the 1.5 total bases nine times in this stretch, averaging 2.2 bases per game.
Getting +105 for him to go Over 1.5 bases is good value considering the way he’s swinging the bat right now, hence why I’m making it my best bet of the night.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Barger o1.5 total bases
Bichette o1.5 total bases
Ober u4.5 strikeouts
For the first leg of our SGP, we will stick with the best bet and take Barger to go Over 1.5 total bases tonight.
Next up for my same-game parlay, I’ll continue to back the bats of the Blue Jays by rolling with Bo Bichette to go Over 1.5 total bases as well. He’s been red-hot over his last eight games with a 1.176 OPS, contributing four home runs in that span. He’s gone Over this base total in six of his last eight outings.
For the final leg of our SGP, I’ll maintain the theme of the Blue Jay offense by taking the Under on strikeouts on Twins starter Bailey Ober, which is set at 4.5. The Jays have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball, and Ober, a contact pitcher, has gone Under the total in four straight outings. He’s also been limited to five innings or less in four of his last five starts.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Friday, June 6, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (5-4, 3.82 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher | Bailey Ober (4-1, 3.48 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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