The first step is done for the Toronto Blue Jays. Next up, the American League East.
It won’t be easy against a Boston Red Sox team still fighting for the playoffs, so Kevin Gausman will have to be at his best.
My Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks back him to rack up the punchouts in this pivotal matchup on September 23.
Blue Jays predictions for September 23
- Best bet
Gausman o6.5 Ks
(+110 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Gausman o6.5 Ks
Giolito o5.5 hits allowed
Kirk o0.5 RBI
(+650 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Swing and a miss
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 strikeouts (+110 at BetVictor)
The Toronto Blue Jays snapped their four-game losing streak with an 8-5 win over the Kansas City Royals on Sunday, lowering their magic number to win the American League East to four with six games to go.
It was good to see the bats get back on track, but this has been one of the best lineups in baseball since the All-Star break, so a bounce-back was expected.
If the Jays want to win their first division title since 2015, the starting pitching will have to be excellent down the stretch, starting with Kevin Gausman tonight.
Luckily for Jays fans, Gausman appears to be peaking at the right time. The veteran right-hander is pitching to a 0.90 ERA, 2.11 FIP, and a 26.2% strikeout rate over his last four starts.
Now, Gausman faces a tough Red Sox lineup, but it’s one he’s had plenty of success against in the past. Current Boston batters have combined for a .196 expected batting average and a 30.6% strikeout rate over 157 plate appearances.
The Red Sox also have the ninth-highest K-rate when facing right-handed pitching this season.
Gausman needs to be at his best tonight, and he will be.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 strikeouts
Lucas Giolito Over 5.5 hits allowed
Alejandro Kirk Over 0.5 RBI
Countering Gausman is Lucas Giolito. The veteran right-hander has a solid 3.46 ERA, but he hasn’t been as good as that number indicates.
The veteran RHP ranks in the Bottom 20% among MLB pitchers in both xERA and opponent xBA. The Blue Jays lead in batting average, are second in OPS, and have the lowest strikeout rate since the All-Star break.
Alejandro Kirk is 6-for-17 in his career vs. Giolito with four dingers. That’s good for a .430 xBA and a .897 xSLG.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Tuesday, September 23, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (10-10, 3.38 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Lucas Giolito (10-4, 3.46 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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