A pair of 2-1 postseason hopefuls hit the field at Croke Park in Dublin, Ireland, with the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers squaring off on Sunday, September 28.
My early Vikings vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks are calling for Minnesota to win on the heels of a strong defensive showing that helps keep this total Under the number in the Week 4 showdown.
Vikings vs Steelers predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Vikings vs Steelers spread pick: Vikings -2.5
I don’t give the Pittsburgh Steelers much credit for topping the New England Patriots in Week 3, so I’m thrilled to land this spread below the key number of 3.
Pittsburgh was fortunate to recover four fumbles and win the turnover battle 5-1. Takeaways are huge, obviously, but Pittsburgh only winning 21-14 doesn’t impress. The Pats had nine more first downs and gained 166 more yards on offense, after all.
Additionally, the Minnesota Vikings represent a huge uptick in class for the Steelers, and QB Carson Wentz played the game-manager role perfectly Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Wentz aired it out for a healthy 8.6 yards per attempt while connecting on 14 of 20 passes. He also impressively finished sixth in adjusted EPA per play and fourth in air yards.
Of course, Wentz and Minny did benefit from five turnovers of their own in Week 3, but the Vikings also steamrolled Cincy 48-10 with 10 more first downs and 181 more yards of offense.
The Minny defense has also allowed the lowest EPA per play while ranking second in defensive DVOA and 10th in PFF defense grade. So, I don't expect the Steelers offense to suddenly flip the switch, considering its respective ranks of 17th, 21st, and 30th in those offensive metrics.
Early Vikings vs Steelers total pick: Under 40.5
Even with the noted success Wentz had in Week 3, I’m anticipating both defenses traveling across the pond in better form than the pair of offenses.
I also expect to see continued improvement from the Steelers' stop unit. Pittsburgh ranking 17th in PFF defense grade and 24th in defensive DVOA, while allowing the ninth-highest EPA per play, doesn’t fully align with the talent on the roster.
A nearly identical Pittsburgh defense ranked third and eighth while holding opponents to the ninth-lowest EPA per play last year, after all.
Finally, Minnesota's defensive prowess has already been highlighted, and no one should expect much magic from Pittsburgh quarterback Aaron Rodgers on Sunday.
Vikings vs Steelers odds
- Vikings vs. Steelers spread: Steelers +2.5
- Vikings vs. Steelers moneyline: Vikings -146, Steelers +124
- Vikings vs. Steelers Over/Under: 40.5
How to watch Vikings vs Steelers
- Vikings vs. Steelers matchup
- Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025, 9:30 a.m. ET
- City: Dublin, Ireland
- Venue: Croke Park
- TV: NFL Network
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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