Best NRFI Bets Today - Tuesday, September 23

Rohit Ponnaiya breaks down his favorite NRFI bets for a full slate of MLB games, including Mets vs. Cubs and Cardinals vs. Giants.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Sep 23, 2025 • 12:22 ET • 4 min read
San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb (62) pitches.
Photo By - Imagn Images. San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb (62) pitches.

Shohei Ohtani will be on the mound tonight as the Dodgers head to the desert to face the Arizona Diamondbacks. While Ohtani has been dealing, his counterpart Brandon Pfaadt has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. 

That's why my MLB picks are backing a run to be scored in the first inning of that NL West showdown.

Check out the rest of my best NRFI bets for Tuesday, September 23.

Best NRFI/YRFI bets today

  • TEAM Mets vs TEAM Cubs: NRFI
  • TEAM Cardinals vs TEAM Giants: NRFI
  • TEAM Dodgers vs TEAM Diamondbacks: YRFI

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NRFI/YRFI bets for September 23

Mets at Cubs: NRFI (Play at Thrillzz)

The New York Mets are sending All-Star David Peterson to the hill for today's clash against the Chicago Cubs.

Peterson has struggled since August, but had pitched to a 2.83 ERA before that while boasting a 2.90 ERA in 21 starts last year. The southpaw is sharp in the first inning, where he has a 2.48 ERA with an OBA of .183. He'll be helped by a strong 11 mph wind blowing towards the infield at Wrigley today. 

That wind will also benefit Cade Horton, who toes the rubber for Chicago. The rookie has been sensational over the last couple of months, pitching to a 0.93 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP in his previous 11 starts.

  • Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: TBS
  • Bet: NRFI

Cardinals at Giants: NRFI (Play at Thrillzz)

The San Francisco Giants were surging at the plate for a few weeks, but the underlying metrics indicated that production wasn't sustainable long-term. Regression has come for the Giants, who are dead-last in the majors in OPS (.544) and batting average (.171) over the last 15 days.

Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals are last in the majors in OPS (.658) and runs per game (3.82) since the All-Star break.

The Cards will have a hard time generating runs off Giants starter Logan Webb. The two-time All-Star has pitched to a 3.27 ERA through 22 starts. 

  • Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network Midwest | NBCS BA
  • Bet: NRFI

Dodgers at Diamondbacks: YRFI (Play at Thrillzz)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a stacked lineup that is second in the majors in OPS (.770) while ranking fourth in run first inning rate (33.3%).

They'll rake against Arizona Diamondbacks righty Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt is in the bottom 10th percentile in xERA (5.55), barrel rate, and hard hit rate, while sitting in the bottom fifth percentile in xBA (.301). 

The Dodgers have a much better starter in Shohei Ohtani (3.29 ERA), but he has a tough matchup on the road against a strong D-Backs lineup. Arizona leads the majors in run first inning rate at home (47.4%) with an OPS of .784.

  • Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: SportsNet LA | Dbacks.TV
  • Bet: YRFI

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

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