Someone will get their first win of the season on Sunday when the Tennessee Titans take on the Houston Texans in a battle of 0-3 teams.
In a game where I expect few points to be scored, I’m wary of giving up a touchdown, so I’m taking Tennessee to cover in my early Titans vs. Texans predictions.
Let’s take a look at the opening lines on this matchup in my free NFL picks for Sunday, September 28.
Titans vs Texans predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Titans vs Texans spread pick: Titans +7.5
Neither team has shown us much on offense yet this season, but the Houston Texans have been better on defense than the Tennessee Titans. In its first three games, Houston has allowed an average of only 17 ppg.
Yes, they’ve still lost all three — that’ll happen when you only put up 12.7 ppg yourself — but all three losses have come in tight, one-possession games against solid opponents.
That compares favorably to the Titans, who have lost by at least a touchdown in each of their first three games. Tennessee has the worst passing attack in the NFL — Cam Ward is completing just 54.5% of his passes — while allowing 31.3 ppg to their opponents.
That suggests the Texans will win this game, but by how much? I can’t see Houston running up the score here, given their offensive struggles.
The Texans have also struggled to move the ball, averaging 5.2 yards per play overall. CJ Stroud has already thrown three interceptions against just two touchdown passes, and leading rusher Nick Chubb is averaging 47 yards per game on the ground.
As long as this line remains over a touchdown, I’m taking Tennessee to cover. But if you can get Under the key number of seven, I’d start to consider the Texans, who should find a way to win this game outright.
Early Titans vs Texans total pick: Under 38.5
Given the offensive struggles of both teams, oddsmakers have already set a very low total for this contest, with FanDuel having the Over/Under at 38.5 points.
Yet I still think the Under is the smart play here when we break down what these teams are capable — or not capable — of doing.
Houston is ranked 29th overall in yardage (267.3 per game), with CJ Stroud having a passer rating of 76.9 in the early going. The Texans have only scored three total touchdowns in three games so far, and have hit the Under in all three of their early-season outings.
Tennessee has been even worse. The Titans rank last in almost every passing category, as Ward is struggling to establish himself as a rookie quarterback in the NFL.
The running game hasn’t been great either, as the Titans are averaging 3.8 yards per carry, which ranks 23rd in the league. Overall, at 3.9 yards per play, this is the worst offense in the NFL.
With so little offensive potential here, I’m taking the Under, and I’m not sure how low the number would have to go for me to even consider the Over.
Titans vs Texans odds
- Titans vs. Texans spread: Texans -7.5
- Titans vs. Texans moneyline: Titans +280, Texans -350
- Titans vs. Texans Over/Under: 38.5
How to watch Titans vs Texans
- Titans vs. Texans matchup
- Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Houston
- Venue: NRG Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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