We’re back at it with a full MLB slate today, and that means more opportunity for home runs. My MLB player props analysis will include Mookie Betts, Alejandro Kirk, and Bryce Harper.
Best MLB home run props today
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Mookie Betts (+543) -
Alejandro Kirk (+636) -
Bryce Harper (+236) - 💲 +16103 parlay💲
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HR Prop #1: Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts steps into tonight’s matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks in good shape. He’s hitting over .300 in September, smacking six home runs and collecting 20 RBI. He’s gone deep 20 times overall, and twice in his last nine contests.
It hasn’t been a banner year for Betts in terms of power, but he’s always had pop in his bat, and Brandon Pfaadt takes the hill tonight. Betts has gone 9-for-20 against him, cracking two long balls off the righty. Pfaadt has allowed 24 home runs in 31 starts in 2025.
Betts will be feeling confident with Pfaadt on the bump, and it could result in him leaving the yard for the 21st time.
HR Prop #2: Alejandro Kirk
Alejandro Kirk is one of the most underrated hitters in the Big Leagues. He’s a threat every time he steps up to the plate, and the Tijuana, Mexico native is an invaluable piece for the playoff-bound Toronto Blue Jays. He’s having another solid campaign, batting .285 with 12 home runs.
We’ve never seen a lot of power output from Kirk. He’s more of a base-knock type hitter, but tonight’s matchup makes me believe he could leave the yard. The Jays face Lucas Giolito of the Boston Red Sox, and Kirk is 6-for-17 lifetime off him. Four of those hits were round-trippers.
Even though Kirk has just one homer this month, his track record against Giolito is impressive. Don’t sleep on this pick.
HR Prop #3: Bryce Harper
We’ll finish off the day with one of the most feared hitters in the league. Bryce Harper has clubbed 27 home runs this season to go along with a .263 average. Although he’s batting just .236 in September, the former first overall pick has gone deep five times. Harper is always a threat to put a baseball in the bleachers.
The Philadelphia Phillies take on the Miami Marlins tonight in an NL East clash, and Edward Cabrera toes the mound for the Fish. Harper is 4-for-10 lifetime against Cabrera, including one homer. He’s allowed 15 bombs in 2025, and nine of them are off the bats of left-handed hitters.
Harper has smacked 17 of his round-trippers off right-handed hurlers, too.
Today’s HR parlay
Mookie Betts to hit a home run
Alejandro Kirk to hit a home run
Bryce Harper to hit a home run
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
- Cal Raleigh, Mariners
- Kyle Schwarber, Phillies
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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