The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians are currently on completely different trajectories.
The former has dropped nine of 10 and is on the verge of seeing its playoff spot disappear, while the latter has won nine of 10 and currently holds the final AL Wild Card spot.
With Tarik Skubal on the mound, my Tigers vs. Guardians predictions see the road team stopping the bleeding and grabbing a much-needed victory.
Let’s break down why with my MLB picks for September 23.
Tigers vs Guardians prediction
Tigers vs Guardians best bet: Tigers -1.5 (+118)
Tarik Skubal is having another fantastic season and enters this pivotal division matchup in great form, having allowed more than a single run in just one of his past six starts.
He's routinely giving the Tigers at least six innings of near blemish-free pitching regardless of the opponent. In fact, he held this scorching hot Cleveland Guardians team to just one run over six innings in his most recent start.
We should expect more of the same this time around, as the Guards just don’t pack the same punch against left-handed pitching. Cleveland owns a .217 average and ranks 28th in wOBA vs. lefties since August 1.
The Detroit Tigers appear to have a much better offensive matchup. Although Gavin Williams hasn’t given up many runs of late, his underlying numbers are not nearly as good as his counting stats.
His FIP (4.31) is much higher than his ERA (2.22) over the past 30 days, which is a red flag. So, too, is his 8% soft contact rate during that span. Only two of today’s projected starters have induced soft contact at a lower rate.
Williams has stranded more than 95% of the baserunners he’s allowed over the last month, which is nowhere close to sustainable.
If regression kicks in even a little bit, the Tigers will have a great chance of cruising to a multi-run victory. Skubal generally needs very little run support.
Tigers vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Gleyber Torres has recorded 13 total bases over the last six games and has multiple hits in three straight. He's getting on base at a high clip, which is what you want when targeting a player to score.
Kerry Carpenter hits for a ton of power vs. right-handed pitching (44 extra base hits, .264 ISO) and hammers the fastball. That sets him up well for success against Williams, who throws the fastball on 43% of his pitches.
Tigers vs Guardians SGP
- Tigers -1.5
- Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 runs
- Kerry Carpenter Over 0.5 RBI
Tigers vs Guardians odds
- Moneyline: Detroit -165 | Cleveland +140
- Run line: Detroit -1.5 (+110) | Cleveland +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (+100) | Under 7 (-120)
Tigers vs Guardians trend
Ten consecutive Detroit wins have come by at least two runs. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Guardians.
How to watch Tigers vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Tuesday, September 23, 2025 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN Detroit, CLEG |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Tarik Skubal (13-5, 2.23 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Gavin Williams (11-5, 3.06 ERA) |
Tigers vs Guardians latest injuries
Tigers vs Guardians weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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