Week 4 in the NFL features a clash of Super Bowl contenders as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.
This is just the third time during the Patrick Mahomes era that the Chiefs are underdogs at home. That's just one reason why my early Ravens vs. Chiefs predictions are taking K.C. with the points.
Here are my best NFL picks for this marquee matchup on September 28.
Ravens vs Chiefs predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Ravens vs Chiefs spread pick: Chiefs +2.5
The Baltimore Ravens collapsed in the fourth quarter against the Bills in their season opener. While they destroyed Cleveland in Week 2, it's worth noting that the Browns outgained them by 81 yards but killed themselves with sloppy turnovers.
Now the Ravens head to Arrowhead Stadium on a short week after losing to the Lions on Monday night.
Baltimore's defense has looked vulnerable and could be missing Pro Bowl DT Nnamdi Madubuike after he sat out Monday due to a neck injury. That's bad news against a Kansas City Chiefs offense that finally came alive in the second half on Sunday in a 22-9 win against the Giants.
Tyquan Thornton broke out with five catches for 71 yards, and there's a good chance that another speedster Xavier Worthy will return to the lineup after getting injured early in Week 1. That gives Patrick Mahomes multiple weapons that can stretch the field.
Betting trends should never be the crux when handicapping games, but they are an element to consider. And it's undeniable that KC shouldn't be overlooked with Mahomes who has gone 11-5 straight up and 12-3-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career.
Meanwhile, Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 1-4 in his career against the Chiefs, with the lone win coming by a single point. Take the home side with the points here.
Early Ravens vs Chiefs total pick: Over 48.5
The Ravens are 16-5-1 O/U since the start of last season due to an up-tempo, high-scoring offense and a shaky defense. They have a tendency to get in shootouts against teams with competent attacks, and the Chiefs' offense is trending in the right direction.
The Chiefs were a strong Under bet last year, but that was largely due to a lack of downfield weapons, which forced them to rely on short passes to move the chains. Mahomes ranked near the bottom of the league in average intended air yards (6.3) in 2024.
That number has surged to 8.3 this season with Mahomes already attempting 15 passes 20+ yards downfield. With Thornton emerging as a deep threat and Worthy possibly returning to the lineup in Week 4, the Chiefs will be able to generate explosive plays.
With Baltimore 27th in the league in defensive EPA and KC 21st, I'm leaning towards the Over.
Ravens vs Chiefs odds
- Ravens vs. Chiefs spread: Chiefs +2.5 (-102)
- Ravens vs. Chiefs moneyline: Ravens -146, Chiefs +124
- Ravens vs. Chiefs Over/Under: 48.5
How to watch Ravens vs Chiefs
- Ravens vs. Chiefs matchup
- Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Kansas City
- Venue: GEHA Stadium at Arrowhead
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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