The Washington Commanders visit the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in an early tape-measuring NFC showdown on Sunday, September 28.
My early Commanders vs. Falcons predictions and NFL picks expect Atlanta to rebound at home and cover the number in a low-scoring Week 4 game.
Commanders vs Falcons predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Commanders vs Falcons spread pick: Falcons +2.5
There’s obviously a chance Washington Commanders star quarterback Jayden Daniels returns from his knee injury in Week 4, but I’m not expecting it.
Washington backup Marcus Mariota was able to lead the team to a comfortable Week 3 win to improve to 2-1, so head coach Dan Quinn turning to him again against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday to give Daniels another week to rest and heal shouldn’t surprise anyone.
The Falcons are tough to read after a statement road win over the Vikings in Week 2 was followed by a 30-0 blowout loss to the Panthers on Sunday. I peg Atlanta in between those two extremes, and I think they’re ripe for a rebound at home against the Commanders.
The Falcons organization is familiar with Mariota from the quarterback’s 13-start season with the club in 2022, and he was gifted a layup matchup with the Raiders heading to Washington on a short week that included a cross-continent trip.
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with a motivated Atlanta team, will prove to be a much tougher spot for Mariota and the Commanders in Week 4.
Early Commanders vs Falcons total pick: Under 45.5
Pair struggling Falcons No. 1 quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the Commanders turning to Mariota again, and I’m anticipating both teams aiming to establish the run in an effort to shorten the game and own the time of possession.
Atlanta has the luxury of leaning on star rusher Bijan Robinson, while Washington was able to scamper for a healthy 201 rushing yards at 6.3 per tote in Week 3. Of course, the Falcons also rank fourth in rushing attempts through three weeks, while the Commanders are eighth.
I’m expecting more of the same from the two offenses Sunday, which will lead the way to this total staying Under the number.
Commanders vs Falcons odds
- Commanders vs. Falcons spread: Falcons +2.5
- Commanders vs. Falcons moneyline: Commanders -145, Falcons +120
- Commanders vs. Falcons Over/Under: 45.5
How to watch Commanders vs Falcons
- Commanders vs. Falcons matchup
- Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Atlanta
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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