The Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays begin a three-game series in Florida tonight.
Addison Barger has been on fire at the plate, and my Blue Jays predictions believe he’ll continue to swing the bat well against a struggling Rays righty.
Find out why with my free MLB picks for this May 23 matchup.
Blue Jays predictions for May 23
- Best bet
Addison Barger Over 1.0 total bases
(+100 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Addison Barger Over 0.5 total bases
Vladimir Guerrero Over 0.5 singles
Drew Rasmussen Over 2.5 earned runs
(+290 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Barger comes up big
Addison Barger Over 1.0 total bases (+100 at BetVictor)
There have been a lot of disappointing hitters in the Toronto Blue Jays' lineup this season, but one positive surprise has been Addison Barger.
According to Baseball Savant, Barger has been one of the better hitters in baseball since being called up from Triple-A, particularly over the last two weeks.
The 25-year-old slugger has been on a tear over his last 12 games, hitting .356 with eight extra-base hits in this stretch, resulting in 2.33 total bases per game.
His power is what is so intriguing to me, as his total base prop is set at 1.0 with the Over paying even money (+100). He’s hit six doubles and two homers, leading the team in extra-base hits. He’s also had six multi-hit outings in that 12-game stretch.
So, whether he's hitting for average or power, he has a great chance to hit the Over.
He’s also had far better results against righties (.431 SLG) than lefties (.300 SLG), which should allow him to find success against Tampa Bay Rays RHP Drew Rasmussen.
Rasmussen has struggled in his last five outings. He has a 4.62 ERA and has been hit hard and often, allowing 11 extra-base hits during that stretch with an average exit velocity against of 90.4 mph, which ranks in the 27th percentile in baseball.
The advantage goes to Barger here, whose hard hit rate is 56.8%, the 16th-highest rate in the major leagues. That type of slugging power has allowed Barger to hit for extra bases, with 50% of his hits resulting in two or more bases on one swing of the bat.
I expect that success to continue tonight against the Rays.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Addison Barger Over 0.5 total bases
Vladimir Guerrero Over 0.5 singles
Drew Rasmussen Over 2.5 earned runs
For the first leg of our SGP, we will mirror the best bet and take Barger to go Over 0.5 total bases.
Next for my same-game parlay, I’ll take Over 2.5 runs allowed for Rasmussen. His 2.93 ERA is a little deceiving, as his expected ERA is 3.47, ranking in the 64th percentile. Before his last outing, Drew Rasmussen had given up at least three runs in four consecutive starts and had a 4.62 ERA in those appearances.
For the final leg of our SGP, I’ll take Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to record a single. Before yesterday, Vladdy had reached base safely in 21 straight games. Over that stretch, he had 24 hits, with 18 of them being singles specifically.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Friday, May 23, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Eric Lauer (1-0, 2.25 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Drew Rasmussen (2-4, 2.93 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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