Kevin Gausman's splitter will be front and center when the Toronto Blue Jays host the Houston Astros this afternoon.
Today's Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this Thursday, September 11 matchup explain why the pitch is the key to the right-hander finding more success.
Blue Jays predictions for September 11
- Best bet
Gausman u5.5 hits
(-120 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Gausman u5.5 hits
Gausman u2.5 earned runs
Varsho o0.5 doubles
(+888 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Gausman gets it done
Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 hits allowed (-120 at BetVictor)
Kevin Gausman has found his mojo lately, looking like the ace the Toronto Blue Jays need heading into the final push for the postseason.
He’s averaged 6 2/3 innings in each of his last five starts, sporting a 2.73 ERA while allowing just 4.6 hits per game.
He’s gone Under today's 5.5 number in four of those last five outings, including his last two starts, where he limited the Yankees to just three hits and the Pirates to five.
As for the Houston Astros, they’ve struggled against starting pitchers lately, being limited to five hits or fewer against them in each of their last five games.
Houston's lineup also struggles with a .198 xBA and a 33.3% strikeout rate against the splitter, ranking near the bottom of the league in both categories.
That’s music to Gausman backers' ears. The Jays’ ace uses the split-finger fastball as his put-away pitch, garnering a 39% whiff rate and 34.4% strikeout percentage.
This explains the poor performance that Astros’ batters have had against Gausman throughout their careers. Their lineup owns a lowly .168 batting average and a .535 OPS against the Jays starter.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 hits
Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 earned runs
Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 doubles
For the second leg of the SGP, I’ll continue to roll with Gausman and take Under 2.5 runs allowed. He’s kept opponents below this number in seven of his last nine starts, averaging 1.88 runs per game over that stretch.
For the final leg, give me Daulton Varsho to record a double. The righty masher is 2-for-8 against Cristian Javier in his career, both hits being doubles.
Bet on the Blue Jays at BetVictor!
Canada's home for betting on the Toronto Blue Jays, elevate your game with BetVictor and get access to competitive odds, great daily promotions, and more — for all 162 games!
19+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario |
| Date | Thursday, September 11, 2025 |
| First pitch | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (9-10, 3.63 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Cristian Javier (1-2, 4.43 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
