We’ve got four games on the MLB playoff slate today, including Game 1 of the ALDS between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a Yankee killer all season long, hitting two or more total bases in five straight games against them, and I’m betting he extends that streak to six straight.
Find out why with my free Toronto Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this October 4 matchup.
Blue Jays predictions for ALDS Game 1
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Blue Jays ALDS Game 1 best bet: Vladdy time
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at BET99)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is awaiting his playoff moment, and it could come in a matchup where he’s been able to excel all season.
The Toronto Blue Jays slugger is hitting .373 against the Yanks with a 1.007 OPS. He’s also averaging 2.23 total bases per game, going Over the betting total in five straight outings against New York.
I expect that success to continue today in a pitching matchup that seems favorable for him.
The Yankees are rolling with Luis Gil this afternoon to start Game 1. His surface-level stats look great, but his underlying numbers tell a different story, and one that screams trouble against Vladdy and the Blue Jays lineup today.
Gil’s 4.79 xERA ranks in the 16th percentile league-wide, while his 2.60 xBA ranks in the 28th percentile. The Yankees starter has struggled with command issues this season, too, walking 13.5% of his batters while also ranking in the 1st percentile in chase-rate.
That could be trouble as he faces a contact-hitting squad ranked No. 1 in xBA that works the count well for walks, and has the lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball.
The guy I’m betting on is the aforementioned Yankee killer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He ranked in the 100th percentile in xBA this season and is 3-for-7 in his career against Gil.
Additionally, Gil’s most utilized pitch is his four-seam fastball, which he throws 51% of the time. Vlad crushes the four-seam, hitting .314 on the season with a .574 xSLG rate.
It’s time for Vladdy to have his moment, and there’s no better time than at home in Game 1 of the ALDS to set the tone.
Today’s Blue Jays Game 1 same-game parlay (SGP)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
George Springer Over 0.5 runs
Jays moneyline
George Springer has crossed home plate 106 times this season, with a 66% hit-rate on the Over across his final 50 games of the season.
The Blue Jays are well rested and have the edge in starting pitching today. Additionally, Toronto went 8-5 on the moneyline during the regular season series between these two.
Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch Blue Jays Game 1
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario |
| Date | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| First pitch | 4:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (10-11, 3.59 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Luis Gil (4-1, 3.32 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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